Lawfare Daily: A Ukraine War Update with Anastasiia Lapatina and Eric Ciaramella
Sep 17, 2024
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Anastasiia Lapatina, an expert on Ukraine, and Eric Ciaramella from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace dive into the intense situation in Ukraine. They discuss the recent devastating bombings affecting major cities and the ongoing military strategies amid rising casualties. The complexity of Ukraine's military operations is highlighted, alongside political tensions and a recent cabinet reshuffle. They also explore international responses and Ukraine's territorial gains, offering a comprehensive view of the war's current dynamics.
Russian forces have escalated their attacks on Ukrainian cities, resulting in significant civilian casualties and heightened fears among the population.
The reshuffling of Ukraine's cabinet, including the departure of key ministers like Dmytro Kuleba, raises questions about the future of its wartime leadership and diplomacy.
Deep dives
Escalating Russian Bombardment in Ukraine
Recent weeks have seen an intensifying pattern of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, culminating in devastating strikes that have resulted in significant casualties. For instance, a missile attack on a military educational facility in Poltava claimed the lives of at least 58 individuals, with many more injured. These attacks have escalated fear among civilians, particularly as they occur with little warning, highlighting the dire reality of living near the conflict's front lines. In a shocking follow-up, a missile strike targeted a civilian area in Lviv, historically seen as a safer part of Ukraine, revealing the indiscriminate nature of Russian bombardments.
The Strategic Dynamics of the Kursk Offensive
The Kursk maneuver, initially anticipated to be a minor incursion, has evolved into a significant occupation, creating psychological momentum for Ukraine even amid pressure in the Donetsk region. Although the operation aimed to relieve pressure on Ukrainian forces elsewhere, its tactical effectiveness remains debated given ongoing challenges in Pokrovsk. This offensive has instilled a sense of resilience among Ukrainians and their allies, demonstrating that Ukraine continues to engage Russian forces effectively. However, the situation in Pokrovsk remains dire, leading to questions about the sustainability of morale and resource allocation as conditions there worsen.
Western Support and Long-Range Weaponry Developments
Diplomatic conversations are advancing regarding the potential relaxation of restrictions on the use of long-range weapons by Ukraine, a shift fueled by the urgency to counter escalating Russian assaults. Recent discussions among U.S. and U.K. officials indicate progress in accommodating Ukrainian requests for more advanced military capabilities, specifically ATACMs and Storm Shadow missiles. Such developments are significant not only for their material impact but also for the psychological boost they provide to both Ukrainian forces and their Western partners. Despite the practicality of these weapons, questions remain about their effectiveness over the vast distances they would need to cover in recent conflicts.
Cabinet Reshuffle and its Implications for Ukrainian Leadership
The recent reshuffle in Ukraine's government has replaced 11 of the 20 ministers, raising questions about continuity and the direction of the wartime administration. Significant departures include Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, whose departure marks a notable shift in Ukraine's international diplomatic approach. While the reshuffle aims to inject new energy into leadership dynamics, concerns linger that it primarily consolidates power within the existing elite rather than bringing about substantial policy changes. Observers note the importance of maintaining diplomatic relationships with allies, emphasizing that the effectiveness of Ukraine's leadership will ultimately depend on their ability to navigate the complexities of wartime governance.
It's been a rough couple of weeks in Ukraine, as Russian forces have hit major cities with intense bombardments, killing an unusually large number of people. Moreover, the front in Donetsk continues to erode. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces are still in Kursk, occupying about 500 square miles of Russian territory, in an embarrassing show of forces to the Russians, and discussions continue with Western governments about relaxing restrictions on Ukrainian use of long-range missiles inside of Russia proper. There was also a cabinet reshuffle recently. That's all a lot to talk about with Lawfare's Ukraine fellow, Anastasiia Lapatina, and Eric Ciaramella of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who joined Benjamin Wittes for an update on the war.