Lithium Rally, Goldman Sachs Outlook, Grasberg Copper Shock, China Supply Curbs, ESS Boom

In this Rock Stock Recap, we break down what retail investors need to know across lithium, copper, and broader commodities as of September 26. We discuss why lithium equities rallied despite "lower-for-longer" price calls, how China's evolving policies on strategic minerals (and growing recycled supply) may limit oversupply, and what shrinking market surpluses could mean for pricing once inventories normalize. We also cover the knock-on effects from Freeport's Grasberg disruption on copper balances, and practical ways to gain exposure via commodity ETFs versus single-name miners.

We examine energy storage as a structural demand driver - highlighting rapid unit-size and cost shifts (e.g., large-format ESS builds and BYD leaks), the importance of BMS and safety regulations, and scenarios for 2030 storage demand and lithium requirements (LCE). We compare the U.S. and China policy backdrop, note Argentina's improving signals for lithium names, and discuss why passive under-allocation to commodities and rising global liquidity (M2) can fuel fund flows into hard assets.

Key topics we cover:

- Lithium: sector rally, Lithium Americas sentiment, Goldman Sachs supply/demand vs price path, inventory overhangs, recycling growth, China's supply curbs.
- Copper: Grasberg outage, inventories, smelting capacity, tariffs/flows, and using CPER/COPX versus producer risk.
- ESS & Renewables: AI-driven power needs, solar-plus-storage momentum, unit scaling, safety/BMS/regulatory catch-up, 2030 LCE implications.
- Macro & Flows: passive underweight to commodities, U.S. retail dynamics, site-visit takeaways, Argentina tailwinds, liquidity and hard-asset rotation.

Tickers mentioned: LAC, LTHM, SQM, ALB, SGML, TMC, USCF (commodities ETFs), CPER, COPX, FCX, BYD, CATL, Anglo, IVN, INR, SLI, ASN.

Commodities & themes: lithium, copper, uranium, rare earths, ESS, AI power demand, China policy, Argentina lithium, recycling, inventories, cost curves, tariffs.

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📖 Chapters
(00:00) Intro
(05:53) Goldman Lithium View
(08:01) Prices, Inventories, Risks
(11:23) Demand, Cost Curve
(12:18) China Oversupply Controls
(14:43) Copper Shock: Grasberg
(19:36) Copper: ETFs vs Miners
(21:58) Secular Commodities Case
(25:44) U.S. Flows & Site Visits
(28:24) MinRes, Steel/Iron Ore Check
(31:16) AI Power: Solar + Storage
(34:28) ESS Demand, Safety, Rules
(38:58) US-China & Transition
(43:26) Liquidity & Hard Assets
(46:15) Closing Remarks

🌍 Links

- Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/
- Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter: https://rkequity.com/
- Learn more about USCF: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/
- Learn more about Lithium Royalty Corp: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel
Podcast:
  Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172
  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq
X (Twitter):
  Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull
  Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13
  Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Rodney and Howard are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity's website https://www.rkequity.com

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein