Rock Stock Channel

In this December 2025 episode of the Recharge Podcast, we (Matt Fernley, editor of Battery Materials Review, and Cormac O’Laoire, MD of Electrios Energy) break down the key developments shaping the battery supply chain as we head into 2026. Chapters (00:00) Introduction (01:21) Overstated Lithium Demand Forecasts (02:44) EV Battery Size Trends (06:25) Lithium Market Risks (08:40) CATL and China Supply (13:01) NIO Semi-Solid Battery (15:13) Solid-State Reality Check (17:06) Battery Costs Turning Point (19:25) China Pricing Reset (22:16) Gigafactory Challenges (25:24) BESS Growth vs Inventories (34:29) BESS Becomes Strategic (38:51) Lithium Prices and Alternatives (41:48) Closing We start with why we think parts of the market may be overstating future lithium demand—particularly assumptions around lithium intensity per kWh and average EV pack size. We discuss how consumer preferences for SUVs and crossovers intersect with affordability, and why that matters for long-term demand modelling across Europe and China. We also look at near-term supply dynamics in China, including the situation around CATL’s lithium asset and what low-grade resources mean for cost and production decisions. On technology, we use NIO’s 150 kWh semi-solid pack as a real-world case study for the current economics of semi-solid and solid-state batteries, and where those technologies may find early adoption (including aviation and low-altitude electric flight). Finally, we review the latest signals on battery costs—including pack prices around $108/kWh and recent indications of cell price increases tied to lithium carbonate and cobalt. We then shift to BESS (battery energy storage systems): strong shipment momentum, project delays, inventory build concerns, and why we see energy storage becoming increasingly strategic infrastructure—especially as utilities, grids, and data center demand accelerate. We close with what we’re watching for 2026: lithium price sensitivity, the economics of longer-duration storage, and when alternatives like sodium-ion and flow batteries could become more competitive. Topics covered: Lithium demand forecasts • EV battery size trends • China lithium supply • CATL • Semi-solid & solid-state batteries • Battery pack pricing • LFP • Gigafactory competitiveness • BESS installations vs shipments • Grid storage economics • Long-duration storage • Sodium-ion • Flow batteries Sponsors - Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) — diversified lithium royalty portfolio. (Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty) - USCF Investments — commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities). (Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments) Links - Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/ - Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter: https://rkequity.com/ Have a question? Drop us an email: rockstockchannel@rkequity.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel Podcast:   Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq X (Twitter):   Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull   Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13   Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH Matt and Cormac are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity’s website https://www.rkequity.com Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

In this episode, Howard and Matt speak with Richard Seville, Executive Chairman of Advanced Energy Minerals (AEM), ahead of the company’s planned ASX listing (ticker: AEM). Chapters (00:00) Introduction (05:31) Richard's Path to AEM (08:18) What HPA Is & Main Uses (10:42) HPA Market Size & Growth (13:07) AEM Expansion Plans (14:48) Customer Qualification Process (18:11) Manufacturing Process Overview (21:54) Cost Curve Positioning (23:21) Low-Carbon Advantage (25:22) IPO, Capital Structure & Funding (30:27) Comparing AEM to Alpha HPA (35:40) Closing Remarks AEM IPO Prospectus: Drop us an email at rockstockchannel@rkequity.com and we'll send it over. Strategic Lithium Reserve (SLR) White Paper: https://blog.rkequity.com/2025/12/08/strategic-lithium-reserve/ Richard is best known in the lithium industry for founding and leading Orocobre, taking it from a sub–$25m market cap IPO through project build-out, major corporate combinations, and ultimately to a transaction involving a global major. In this interview, we focus on AEM’s strategy in high purity alumina (HPA)—a niche but important industrial material used in sapphire/LED substrates, semiconductors, and emerging battery applications. We cover: - What HPA (4N / 5N purity) is and where it is used in the modern economy - Market size and growth expectations, including supply dynamics and China’s role - AEM’s Québec-based brownfield turnaround of an HPA plant acquired out of insolvency - The company’s current operating status and capacity expansion roadmap (Stage 1 and Stage 2) - How customer qualification works in HPA markets (including typical timelines) - AEM’s process overview (hydrometallurgy + calcining steps) and key cost inputs - The company’s positioning on the global cost curve, including access to low-cost hydro power - The role of low-carbon intensity in customer decision-making and procurement - IPO timing, funding history, balance sheet position, and views on future dilution risk - How AEM compares with other ASX-listed HPA peers, including differences in project stage and financing approach Sponsors - Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) - diversified lithium royalty portfolio. (Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty) - USCF Investments - commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities). (Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments) Links - Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/ - Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter/Matt's Blogs: https://rkequity.com/ Have a question? Drop us an email: rockstockchannel@rkequity.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel Podcast:   Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq X (Twitter):   Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull   Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13   Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER   NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH Howard, Matt and Rodney are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity's website https://www.rkequity.com Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

In this episode, we’re joined by Keith Phillips for a wide-ranging, data-driven discussion on lithium markets, battery economics, and critical minerals strategy as 2026 approaches. Chapters (00:00:00) Intro (00:05:24) CATL Restart And Lithium Prices (00:07:45) Solid-State Battery Reality Check (00:12:02) Battery Costs: What's Next (00:15:02) Lithium Demand Forecast Pitfalls (00:17:56) EV Battery Size And Mass Market (00:22:52) Autonomy And Battery Demand (00:24:17) Power Metals Deal Update (00:25:29) Q2 Metals And Cisco Overview (00:27:59) Rio Tinto Quebec Strategy (00:30:09) Faster Permitting In Canada (00:31:18) Picking Winners In Lithium Projects (00:35:29) Offtakes Vs. Traders (00:38:53) US Critical Minerals Funding (00:45:09) What's Truly "Critical" (00:47:35) Where To List A Lithium Company (00:55:02) Surge-Evolution JV And 2026 Plans (01:03:43) SLR Breakdown Strategic Lithium Reserve (SLR) White Paper: https://blog.rkequity.com/2025/12/08/strategic-lithium-reserve/ We begin with a deep dive into the Strategic Lithium Reserve (SLR), explaining why price volatility—not geology—is the biggest constraint on Western lithium investment, and how China’s pricing power via CATL, BYD, and the G-FEX exchange has reshaped the global market. We discuss price floors, market stabilization, and why lithium sits at the center of energy security, industrial policy, and the emerging “electrostate” economy. From there, we analyze near-term lithium price drivers, including delays to Chinese supply restarts, seasonal demand patterns, and the growing role of energy storage systems (ESS). We examine battery technology trends, including semi-solid and solid-state batteries, falling battery costs, and what consumer price sensitivity means for EV adoption, battery size, and lithium intensity. The conversation also tackles a critical forecasting issue: whether lithium demand is being overstated due to unrealistic assumptions around battery chemistry and average EV battery size. We compare LFP, mid-nickel, and high-nickel batteries, and discuss how China’s mass-market EV model differs from Western assumptions. Keith shares insights from his experience as a former lithium CEO, including how to evaluate lithium projects, the importance of location and permitting timelines, the realities of offtake agreements versus spot sales, and how government funding and capital markets shape project outcomes. We also discuss Quebec’s growing role in hard-rock lithium, Q2 Metals’ Cisco project, Rio Tinto’s conversion strategy, and the outlook for permitting reform in Canada. We close with a market update on recent deals, including Power Metals and Surge Battery Materials, and discuss where institutional interest in lithium may return as prices stabilize and policy priorities shift. This episode is designed for investors, industry professionals, and policymakers looking for a clear, grounded view of lithium markets, battery economics, and the strategic decisions shaping the next phase of the energy transition. Sponsors - Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) - diversified lithium royalty portfolio. (Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty) - USCF Investments - commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities). (Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments) Links - Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/ - Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter/Matt's Blogs: https://rkequity.com/ Have a question? Drop us an email: rockstockchannel@rkequity.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel Podcast:   Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq X (Twitter):   Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull   Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13   Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER   NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH Howard, Matt and Rodney are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity's website https://www.rkequity.com Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

We've released a major new RK Equity policy white paper:   The USA Strategic Lithium Reserve A Modern SPR for the Lithium Age   Read the full white paper here: https://blog.rkequity.com/2025/12/08/strategic-lithium-reserve/    Lithium prices have swung 10–15× in the past two cycles, driven largely by China’s dominance of chemical conversion. This volatility makes it extremely difficult for Western projects—no matter the geology or management—to reach Final Investment Decision.   After the House critical minerals hearings this fall, one important idea was missing from the policy conversation:   A Strategic Lithium Reserve — an SPR-style buffer for lithium.   The SLR is simple and market-driven: • Buy carbonate when prices fall below sustainable incentive levels • Release during spikes, disruptions, or export threats • Stabilize the chemical margin without price floors or technology favoritism • Enable private capital to finance new Western supply   And critically:   This can begin within months at today’s low prices.   The white paper outlines the cost model ($3–7B) and how a three-phase implementation could stabilize the market and diversify supply chains across the Western Hemisphere.   If you find the analysis valuable, please share it with colleagues in policy, industry, or the investment community. Your support helps bring this idea into the national conversation.   Thanks for reading, Howard Klein RK Equity

The discussion opens with a detailed assessment of Rio Tinto's Lithium Strategy Day—its updated demand outlook, cost assumptions, expansion plans in Argentina and Canada, and the organizational shift aligning lithium with the aluminum division. Howard and Matt examine implications for hard-rock supply, brine dominance, and potential M&A in Quebec. Chapters (00:00:00) Intro (00:01:46) Rio Tinto Strategy Overview (00:15:19) Q2 Metals Drill Results (00:18:03) NOA Lithium and Brine Scarcity (00:20:12) Europe: EMH and Vulcan News (00:27:02) Rare Earth Supply Risks (00:31:00) Solar Growth and Silver Demand (00:32:40) Physical Silver Squeeze (00:35:47) Closing Remarks (00:37:14) 121: NOA Lithium Brines (00:40:42) Q2 Metals in Quebec (00:42:39) Geopolitics & Critical Minerals (00:43:49) Permitting Challenges (00:45:08) Argentina's Mining Climate (00:47:17) U.S. Battery Strategy (00:49:18) Canada's Role (00:50:51) Importance of Copper (00:53:51) Hawke's Point Investment Approach (00:55:24) NOA PEA Highlights (00:57:52) Q2 Resource Growth (00:59:06) Hawke's Commodity Picks (01:03:34) Lithium Market Outlook (01:05:38) M&A Environment (01:10:39) Market Sentiment The conversation then turns to Q2 Metals and its standout drill results at the Cisco Project, which we see as one of the strongest hard-rock intercepts in recent years. Matt explains why the geology, scale, metallurgy, and infrastructure advantages could differentiate Cisco from other Canadian projects. We also discuss lithium brine dynamics—especially in Argentina—highlighting growing interest from major producers and why standalone brine assets may be increasingly scarce and undervalued. We also analyze Europe's shifting approach to critical minerals, including recent EU-backed financing for lithium projects and the continent's push to secure its own battery materials supply chain despite limited upstream resources. We close with a broader view across critical minerals: tightening physical silver markets, the strategic significance of heavy rare earths, and copper's central role in electrification, AI infrastructure, and energy transition technologies. At the end of the video, viewers will also find a separate 121 panel discussion featuring NOA Lithium Brines, Q2 Metals, and Hawke's Point Capital, where the panel explores lithium brine development in Argentina, early-stage discovery value in Quebec, permitting pathways, jurisdictional dynamics, and investor perspectives on project economics and global critical minerals supply chains. Sponsors - Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) - diversified lithium royalty portfolio. (Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty) - USCF Investments - commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities). (Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments) Links - Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/ - Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter/Matt's Blogs: https://rkequity.com/ Have a question? Drop us an email: rockstockchannel@rkequity.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel Podcast:   Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq X (Twitter):   Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull   Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13   Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER   NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH Howard, Matt and Rodney are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity's website https://www.rkequity.com Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

In this episode, we sit down with John Passalacqua, CEO of First Phosphate (CSE: PHOS), to discuss one of the most overlooked segments of the energy transition: the phosphate supply chain for LFP batteries. As investors increasingly focus on lithium, nickel, and cobalt, phosphate has quietly emerged as a potential bottleneck for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery production outside of China. Chapters (00:00) Intro (05:39) John's Background (06:56) LFP Supply Chain Steps (09:34) Igneous vs. Sedimentary Phosphate (12:59) Project Infrastructure (15:08) Studies and Development Timeline (16:39) Offtake Strategy (19:33) Competitive Landscape (20:37) Permitting Process (23:07) Government Support (24:37) Strategic Partnerships (27:00) Project Economics (29:45) 2026 Milestones (30:35) Closing Remarks First Phosphate's Investor Presentation: https://firstphosphate.com/FirstPhosphateDeck_english.pdf Drawing on our research and recent work in the battery materials sector, we explore why igneous phosphate resources—such as First Phosphate's Bégin-Lamarche project in Quebec—may play a critical role in supplying purified phosphoric acid (PPA), a key precursor for LFP cathode materials. John walks us through the six-step integrated mine-to-cathode value chain, the distinctions between igneous and sedimentary phosphate, and why high-purity phosphate is essential for battery-grade chemistry. We also examine the company's business model, drilling progress, feasibility timeline, offtake strategy, infrastructure advantages, and how First Phosphate is positioning itself to support North America's growing demand for LFP-based battery energy storage systems (BESS). The conversation includes a detailed look at the company's PEA economics, permitting pathway, government engagement, and strategic partnerships across the supply chain. For investors tracking the electrification trend, critical minerals, and the rapid shift toward LFP chemistry in stationary storage and EVs, this discussion provides context on a market segment that has received limited attention but may prove strategically important over the coming years. Topics Covered - Why phosphate may become a bottleneck in the LFP supply chain - Differences between igneous and sedimentary phosphate and why purity matters - North America's opportunity to onshore the LFP value chain - First Phosphate's development timeline and project economics - Offtake agreements, partnerships, and financing considerations - Policy and permitting environment in Quebec - How LFP growth ties into broader electrification and grid storage trends About First Phosphate (CSE: PHOS) First Phosphate is advancing a vertically integrated LFP materials supply chain in North America, focused exclusively on high-purity igneous phosphate for battery-grade applications. The company has raised approximately C$44M to date and continues to advance its flagship project toward feasibility. Sponsors - Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) - diversified lithium royalty portfolio. (Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty) - USCF Investments - commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities). (Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments) Links - Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/ - Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter/Matt's Blogs: https://rkequity.com/ Have a question? Drop us an email: rockstockchannel@rkequity.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel Podcast:   Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq X (Twitter):   Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull   Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13   Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER   NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH Howard, Matt and Rodney are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity's website https://www.rkequity.com Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

In this episode, Howard and Rodney sit down with Keith Coughlan, Managing Director of European Metals Holdings (EMH), for a detailed discussion following a major development in Europe's lithium sector. The Czech Republic has approved up to €360M in grant funding for the Cinovec lithium project, Europe's largest hard-rock lithium resource. This funding follows the earlier $36M Just Transition Fund grant and reinforces Cinovec's designation as a strategic project under both the Czech government and the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). Chapters (00:00) Intro (03:11) EMH Market Context (08:39) Cinovec Overview (11:19) Permitting & EIA Timeline (12:44) DFS & Project Funding (13:29) €360M Grant Breakdown (15:16) Determining Final Grant Amount (16:30) Project Comparisons (18:24) Offtake & OEM Interest (21:32) Funding Options (23:27) Valuation & Ownership (26:56) Potential Partners (29:44) Market Perspective (31:16) Project Execution & Staffing (35:21) Utilities & Energy Storage Demand (36:24) Closing Remarks With geopolitical urgency surrounding critical minerals supply, the EU is preparing to unveil its new Resource EU plan, aimed at strengthening regional access to lithium and other essential raw materials. Europe's reliance on Asian supply chains, China's recent export controls, and accelerating U.S.–EU competition for strategic projects all form the backdrop for this conversation. Keith provides updates on: - The scope and significance of the €360M grant - Progress toward the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) - Recent advances in permitting, including preliminary mining permits across the full ore reserve - The timing and process for the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) - Project funding pathways involving the EIB, EU critical minerals financing, export credit agencies, and potential offtake partners - Comparisons to peer projects such as Thacker Pass, Vulcan, Standard Lithium, and others - The role of EMH's 51% partner ČEZ, one of Europe's largest utilities We also explore market sentiment around EMH, valuation gaps across the lithium sector, and the broader implications of utility involvement, energy storage demand, and Europe's evolving industrial policy. Sponsors - Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) - diversified lithium royalty portfolio. (Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty) - USCF Investments - commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities). (Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments) Links - Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/ - Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter/Matt's Blogs: https://rkequity.com/ Have a question? Drop us an email: rockstockchannel@rkequity.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel Podcast:   Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq X (Twitter):   Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull   Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13   Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER   NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH Howard, Matt and Rodney are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity's website https://www.rkequity.com Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

In this Rock Stock Recap, Howard, Matt and Rodney dig into the state of the lithium market, energy storage demand, and the broader critical minerals landscape against a rapidly changing macro and geopolitical backdrop. They unpack why there is still no agreed historical lithium supply dataset, how a 20% spread in 2024 supply estimates can distort every long-term forecast, and why Chinese and China-controlled supply (especially in Africa) is likely being underestimated by many Western brokers. In the second part of the video, Howard speaks with Washington, DC lobbyist Ben Steinberg of Venn Strategies and the Battery Materials & Technology Coalition about how U.S. critical minerals and battery policy is evolving one year into the new administration. Chapters (00:00:00) Intro (00:03:30) Lithium Data Inconsistencies (00:05:55) Supply Models and Inventory Issues (00:10:08) Supply Outlook to 2027 (00:10:50) China's Lithium Supply Impact (00:11:30) Inventory Trends and Prices (00:13:40) Analyst BESS Forecast Critiques (00:18:27) Growth of Energy Storage (00:20:40) Exxon and U.S. Brine Projects (00:22:21) Rio Tinto's Lithium Strategy (00:25:44) U.S.-China Relations (00:31:54) Critical Minerals Market Outlook (00:35:20) Interview with Ben Steinberg (00:37:37) Clean Energy Policy Overview (00:39:16) Understanding 45X Incentives (00:40:34) Solar, Wind, and Battery Role (00:42:22) Shifts in Federal Energy Leadership (00:46:21) Pentagon Deal-Making and Leadership (00:50:48) Battery Policy Silence on EVs (00:52:43) DOE Reorganization and New Leadership (00:55:22) Musk, Grid Capacity, and Policy (00:58:20) Autonomy and Upcoming Legislation (01:00:01) Tariffs, FDI, and Trade Strategy (01:04:07) How Projects Get Federal Attention (01:07:30) Vulcan Deal Context (01:09:45) Nuclear Strategy and Minerals (01:11:26) What's Coming in Year Two (01:12:20) Closing Remarks Also Discussed The besties walk through Matt's latest supply models out to 2027, seasonality and inventories in China, and how lithium prices have been tracking inventory moves rather than trading "randomly." They critique recent analyst work from Goldman Sachs and Canaccord on EV and BESS (battery energy storage system) demand, highlighting why flatlining BESS growth after a couple of strong years looks unrealistic given grid needs, AI-driven power demand, and booming ESS build-outs. They also touch on Exxon's Smackover lithium ambitions, slower-than-hyped timelines for U.S. brine and geothermal projects, and what Rio Tinto's likely focus on low-cost brine assets could mean for hard-rock projects in Quebec. The conversation broadens into U.S.-China relations, tariffs, rare earths, and why recent equity market weakness in critical minerals may be over-discounting a "kumbaya" scenario rather than the continued strategic competition that policy still implies.  In the second part of the video, Ben & Howard discuss the "one big beautiful bill," the role of the 45X production tax credit, DOE reorganization around critical minerals and batteries, the growing focus on energy and AI dominance, and how agencies like the Department of War, DOE, Commerce, EXIM and DFC are coordinating on mineral-by-mineral strategies and dealmaking.  Ben also explains the new emphasis on foreign direct investment from allies (Japan, Australia, South Korea, the Middle East) into U.S. critical mineral and processing projects, and what companies need in place—offtake, private capital, strategic partners—to be taken seriously in Washington.  Sponsors - Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) - diversified lithium royalty portfolio. (Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty) - USCF Investments - commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities). (Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments) Links - Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/ - Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter/Matt's Blogs: https://rkequity.com/ Have a question? Drop us an email: rockstockchannel@rkequity.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel Podcast:   Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq X (Twitter):   Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull   Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13   Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER   NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH Howard, Matt and Rodney are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity's website https://www.rkequity.com Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

In this episode we sit down with Craig Shesky, CFO of The Metals Company (TMC), following his participation at Benchmark Minerals Week in Los Angeles. With growing global interest in critical minerals, deep-sea resources, and U.S. strategic supply chains, we discuss what investors should understand about the evolving regulatory landscape, funding outlook, and TMC's path toward its target of commercial production in Q4 2027. Chapters (00:00) Introduction (02:26) TMC Update Overview (03:25) Benchmark Week Insights (06:29) NOAA Rule & Permitting (08:37) US-Japan Rare Earth Partnership (09:58) Copper Added to US Mineral List (11:08) Cash Position & Funding (12:51) Path to 2027 Production (16:32) Government Coordination on Minerals (18:54) Industry Funding Landscape (20:18) Closing Remarks Episode Summary We begin with the latest insights from Dmitry Silversteyn of Water Tower Research, whose updated note on TMC highlights the company's current cash position, warrant structure, and capital requirements for upgrading the Hidden Gem vessel alongside Allseas. Craig provides additional context on how TMC views funding needs, potential warrant proceeds, and the company's confidence in maintaining its development timeline. From Benchmark Week, Craig shares observations on industry sentiment, increased attendance at deep-sea mining sessions, and the level of interest from battery manufacturers, automakers, and institutional investors. We also discuss the role of the International Seabed Authority, emerging U.S. regulatory approaches, and the implications of NOAA's draft rule aimed at streamlining seabed exploration and commercial recovery permits. Our conversation explores a number of themes important to investors: - U.S. and allied government coordination on critical minerals - The growing strategic interest in seabed resources - TMC's position within the broader EV and energy-transition supply chain - Copper's inclusion on the U.S. Critical Minerals List - Funding pathways from federal agencies and potential strategic partners - Key milestones to watch as TMC progresses toward 2027 We also touch on recent geopolitical developments, major capital commitments into minerals and metals globally, and what these signals mean for deep-sea mining as an emerging industry. Sponsors - Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) - diversified lithium royalty portfolio. (Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty) - USCF Investments - commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities). (Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments) Links - Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/  - Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter/Matt's Blogs: https://rkequity.com/ Have a question? Drop us an email: rockstockchannel@rkequity.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel Podcast:   Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq X (Twitter):   Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull   Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13   Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER   NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH Howard, Matt and Rodney are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity's website https://www.rkequity.com Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

A major focus of this week's Rock Stock Recap is the shifting supply-demand outlook for lithium. We examine commentary from Albemarle, SQM, Pilbara Minerals, Lithium Argentina, and others speaking at the Deutsche Bank conference. Themes include: accelerating ESS demand, underinvestment outside China, tightening carbonate/hydroxide inventories, and updated price forecasts from analysts now acknowledging materially stronger near-term fundamentals. We also unpack the implications of Ganfeng's chairman suggesting lithium prices could rise back toward RMB 150,000-200,000/ton if battery demand grows above 30%. Chapters (00:00) Intro (02:56) IperionX Update (03:39) Sigma Lithium Overview (06:06) CATL & Price Movements (07:11) Lithium Demand Drivers (08:20) Analyst Price Forecasts (09:17) Macro Environment Impact (10:41) Project Economics & Costs (11:34) Producer Commentary (16:10) China Market Manipulation (19:12) PLS & Supply Strategy (23:59) ESS & Battery Growth (25:10) 2026 Lithium Outlook (28:51) Bitcoin & Liquidity (31:30) Closing Remarks (33:07) Q2 Metals (37:14) NOA Lithium Brines (44:27) Atlantic Lithium Quick Links - Sigma Lithium Earnings Call: https://vimeo.com/1138183087?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci - China Market Manipulation Report: https://www.congress.gov/119/meeting/house/118668/documents/HHRG-119-ZS00-20251119-SD001.pdf Episode Summary After a busy week meeting more than 25 companies at the 121 Mining Conference in London and participating in Deutsche Bank's 10th Annual Lithium Supply Conference, we share fresh insights from developers, producers, and policymakers shaping the sector. We discuss recent updates from Q2 Metals, NOA Lithium Brines, and Atlantic Lithium - three developers with meaningful corporate news. We also address heightened market attention on IperionX and Sigma Lithium after recent short-seller activity, and what company responses tell us about sentiment and positioning. We explore U.S. policy momentum as congressional hearings increasingly spotlight China's role in lithium price formation and potential market manipulation. With major U.S. and Australian policymakers pushing for new supply-chain tools, including infrastructure support and bilateral task forces, we discuss timelines and what investors should watch through 2026. Beyond lithium, Rodney provides macro context around liquidity, quantitative tightening, equity volatility, and signals from Bitcoin and other hard assets. We also touch on new U.S. policy ideas being floated—from 50-year mortgages to auto-loan interest deductibility—and how these proposals may influence consumer behavior and EV demand. To close the episode, we revisit auction signals from Liontown, PLS's strategic positioning, and early indications of a potential market inflection as some developers consider selling lower-grade material such as middlings - historically a sign of improving underlying conditions. Stay tuned after the discussion for short interview excerpts with Q2 Metals, NOA Lithium Brines and Atlantic Lithium. Sponsors - Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) - diversified lithium royalty portfolio. (Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty) - USCF Investments - commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities). (Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments) Links - Read Matt's research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/ - Sign up for the Lithium-Ion Bull newsletter/Matt's Blogs: https://rkequity.com/ Have a question? Drop us an email: rockstockchannel@rkequity.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel Podcast:   Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172   Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq X (Twitter):   Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull   Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13   Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER   NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH Howard, Matt and Rodney are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity's website https://www.rkequity.com Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein