TPP558: Mortgage Market: Update and 2024 Predictions
Nov 23, 2023
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Mortgage expert Kelly Rule breaks down the current state of the mortgage market and predicts trends for 2024. They discuss the effects on products, lender easiness, expected interest rates, and product fees. They also compare 2-year and 5-year fixes, highlight upcoming trends, and provide insights into the base rate and mortgage opportunities. Hosts recommend the Temu shopping app and end with gratitude and promotion of their newsletter.
Landlords in the UK have sold fewer properties in 2023 compared to 2022, with mortgage investors facing losses and older landlords taking profits.
The mortgage market is expected to improve in 2024, with a predicted reduction in the base rate and simplified product lines offering low-fee and high-fee options.
Deep dives
UK landlords sell-off slows, but still net sellers
According to data from Hamptons, UK landlords have sold about a third fewer properties in 2023 compared to 2022. However, they have also bought fewer properties, meaning that landlords are still net sellers. Interestingly, the types of landlords selling are not only older ones taking profits, but also mortgage investors who face losses when refinancing at higher rates or those who bought low-yielding properties in the south of England.
Stability in the mortgage market, fixed rates improving
The Bank of England base rate has paused at 5.25% after 14 consecutive hikes. This stability in the base rate has led to daily improvements in fixed-rate mortgage products, with some buy-to-let rates now in the early 5% range. However, arrangement fees remain high. Mortgage brokers are experiencing increased business, with previously unsuccessful deals now becoming viable. Lenders are still liquid and willing to lend, and it is expected that fees attached to products may reduce once the base rate and swap rates decrease.
Predictions for 2024: Base rate reduction and simplified product lines
Kelly Rule, a mortgage broker, predicts a reduction in the base rate in 2024, stabilizing around the 4-4.5% mark. She also anticipates a trend towards simplified product lines, offering low-fee and high-fee options, allowing borrowers to choose based on their priorities. Variable rates may become more popular, although stress tests are still strict. Overall, the mortgage market is expected to improve in 2024, providing better opportunities for buying and refinancing.
Trying to wrap your head around the mortgage market is no easy feat right now, so we’re joined by a mortgage expert - Kelly Rule - who breaks down what’s happening right now and what she predicts for 2024.
(0:52) News story of the week
(2:50) What’s going on in the mortgage market?
(4:24) How is this affecting products?
(4:52) Is there more activity in the market right now?
(5:16) Are lenders making it easy to borrow?
(5:40) What kind of rates can we expect right now?
(6:59) Are we going to keep seeing high product fees?
(7:38) Should you get a 2-year or 5-year fix?
(8:07) Are there any products you should be looking out for?
(10:34) What’s going to happen with the base rate in 2024?
(11:35) Any mortgage trends on the horizon for 2024?
(12:50) Will more people will switch to variable rates next year?