Macro Voices MacroVoices #425 Alex Gurevich: Real Rates, Precious Metals, Currencies and More
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Apr 25, 2024 Founder and CIO of Honte Investments, Alex Gurevich, discusses inflation, real rates impact on the economy, precious metals, currencies, trading strategies, risk management, energy markets, geopolitical impacts, and Uranium prices in an insightful and informative conversation.
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Disinflationary View and Economic Data Discrepancy
- Alex Gurevich's disinflationary view faces more challenges now, but his core thesis remains.
- He believes it's still too early to assess real rates' full impact and sees a discrepancy between robust top-down and weaker bottom-up economic data.
Inflation Drivers and Real Rates
- Gurevich's thesis emphasizes current inflation as the most crucial input for future inflation.
- High real rates are deflationary as they encourage increased productivity and balance sheet caution.
Real Rates and Inflationary Impact
- Gurevich uses a two-year rolling average for policy rate and CPI to illustrate real rate impact.
- He suggests the cumulative effect of negative real rates fueled 2022's inflation despite tightening financial conditions.