From Our Neurons to Yours

NeuroForecasting: how brain activity can predict stock prices or viral videos | Brian Knutson

Oct 30, 2025
Brian Knutson, a Stanford psychology professor specializing in neuroeconomics, shares groundbreaking insights into how brain activity can forecast market trends and viral content. He explains the role of the nucleus accumbens in predicting risky choices and emphasizes how anticipation shapes decisions. Knutson discusses his neuroforecasting studies, revealing that brain signals often outperform behavioral predictions in forecasting phenomena like crowdfunding success and video virality. He also touches on the ethical implications of applying neuroscience to marketing.
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INSIGHT

Feelings Drive Choices Before Outcomes

  • Anticipatory affect (excitement or anxiety) arises before outcomes and guides choices.
  • Nucleus accumbens aligns with excitement while anterior insula aligns with anxiety during risky decisions.
INSIGHT

Decisions Live Between Input And Output

  • fMRI shows decision-relevant signals between perception and action in deeper brain regions.
  • These midbrain and subcortical signals predict upcoming choices beyond visual or motor activity.
INSIGHT

AIM: A Three-Step Decision Model

  • AIM framework: Affect, Integration, Motivation structure choice processing over time.
  • Early affective signals bias decisions, later prefrontal integration refines them.
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