Fixed Income Roundtable with the UBS Chief Investment Office
Mar 26, 2024
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Join the CIO fixed income team for insights on market expectations, preferred securities' performance, potential market pullback, investment grade bonds challenges, and outlook on preferred and equity funds amidst interest rate changes.
Preferred assets in the fixed income sector have shown resilience despite rising yields, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts.
High yield performance has been strong, attributed to positive economic indicators, healthy earnings, and increased new issuances.
Deep dives
Performance of Preferred Assets in the First Quarter
Preferred assets have shown remarkable resilience in the first quarter, with yields on the five and ten-year treasuries increasing by about 40 basis points, typically representing a headwind for preferred assets. Despite this, the preferred sector has seen positive returns, driven by the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The performance of the embedded credit assets, particularly the $25 par preferred, has been strong, showing gains of almost six percent, while the $1,000 par preferred assets have also shown positive returns. This performance has been influenced by the anticipation of Fed rate cuts.
Drivers of High Yield Performance in the First Quarter
High yield performance has been solid, with spreads rallying from tight levels to accommodate rate changes. The resilient performance can be attributed to better-than-expected economic indicators, healthy earnings, and the significant increase in new issuances. Additionally, lower quality triple C spreads have tightened more than double B spreads, driving the overall high yield market. This performance reflects the strength of the economy and the supportive new issuance market.
Performance and Outlook for Investment Grade Corporates
Investment grade corporates have experienced a loss in total return but have shown a positive excess return, driven by spread compression supported by robust demand from institutional and retail investors. The favorable yield levels, coupled with increased market-weighted coupons and a strong primary calendar, have contributed to the return advantage over treasuries. Looking ahead, the Fed's anticipated rate cuts are expected to benefit investment grade corporates, especially with a moderating economic environment and continued demand strength.
Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, rates, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, and Alina Golant, along with Senior Closed-end Funds Strategist, Sangeeta Marfatia.
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