A Viewer’s Guide to Election Night

Nov 2, 2020

Alexander Burns, a national political correspondent for The New York Times, shares expert insights on the upcoming election night scenarios. He discusses how early wins in pivotal states like Florida and Georgia could shape Biden's path to victory, while Trump needs to secure key territories to stay competitive. The conversation touches on the potential chaos with tight margins and delayed results, paralleling the 2000 election. Burns also highlights the psychological anxiety surrounding election outcomes, revealing the emotional stakes for voters.

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INSIGHT

Early Biden Win

Joe Biden could win if he takes a key state early on, like Florida or Georgia.
These states have efficient early voting systems, potentially signaling a wider trend.

INSIGHT

Florida's Importance

Florida's efficient mail-in voting system is due to its large senior population and hurricane preparedness.
Republicans doubt Trump can win without Florida, making it a crucial state.

INSIGHT

Trump Holds Early States

If Trump holds onto early-counting states, the race likely hinges on the Midwest.
This scenario suggests a close race, requiring focus on later-reporting states.

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There are many permutations of the U.S. presidential election — some messier than others.

Joe Biden’s lead in national polls suggests he has a number of paths to victory. If states like Florida or Georgia break for him early on, then the Trump campaign could be in for a long night.

The task for President Trump is to close those paths. If he can hold Florida and quickly add the likes of Arizona and North Carolina, then the signs could point to re-election.

And then there is a third scenario. If fast-counting states are too close to call immediately and battlegrounds in the Midwest take a long time to tally votes, then a long wait for a final result — and bitter, lengthy legal challenges — could be on the cards.

We speak to Alexander Burns, a national political correspondent for The Times, on the likely plotlines for election night.

Guest: Alexander Burns, a national political correspondent for The New York Times, walks us through possible election night scenarios.

In addition to our regular show on Election Day, The Daily is going LIVE tomorrow afternoon. Spend your Election Day with Michael Barbaro and Carolyn Ryan, deputy managing editor at The Times, as they call our correspondents for the latest on a history-making day.

Tune in from 4 - 8 p.m. Eastern, only on nytimes.com/thedaily. Click here for more information.

Background reading:

The Trump and Biden campaigns are intensifying their efforts in Pennsylvania — an increasingly critical state.
How long will counting take? We asked officials about their election results processes and about what share of the vote they expect to be finished by Wednesday.
Americans are pushing through challenges like the pandemic and long lines to cast their ballot. The United States is on course to surpass 150 million votes for the first time.

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