Ep. 221: Vasileios Gkionakis on European Election Fallout, Fed and Fiscal Risks
Jun 21, 2024
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Vasileios Gkionakis, Head of Europe Economics and Strategy at Aviva Investors, discusses UK election impact, BoE cuts, European mortgage rates, European election fallout, currency markets, shift towards active fiscal policy post-COVID, and influential books on philosophy and decision-making.
UK's stagnant consumption growth poses challenges for BoE rate cuts and monetary policy decisions.
Far-right parties' influence in European elections emphasizes the need for unity in policymaking.
US Fed faces challenges amid sticky inflation and slowing data trends, impacting rate cut expectations.
Deep dives
Guest's Educational and Career Background
The podcast guest, Vassilis, shared insights into his academic journey, transitioning from academic economics at LSE to practical finance roles. His experiences at various institutions like Fulcrum Asset Management, Bank of America, and Lombard Odier have shaped his expertise in global emerging markets and European economics.
UK Economics and Monetary Policy
The discussion highlighted concerns about the UK's stagnant consumption growth and its impact on the economy. The guest expressed reservations about the Bank of England's potential rate cuts, citing the April inflation surge. The absence of consumption growth poses challenges for monetary policy decisions, potentially affecting market stability.
Eurozone Political Landscape
The conversation delved into the recent European elections, focusing on the performance of far-right parties and their influence in countries like France and Germany. Emphasizing the need for a united Franco-German front in policymaking, potential political paralysis could hinder progress on key issues like regulation, defense, and budgetary decisions.
US Macroeconomic Trends and Federal Reserve Outlook
The guest assessed the US macroeconomic cycle, noting a balance between sticky inflation and slowing data trends. Amid uncertainties, the Federal Reserve faces challenges in managing inflation and employment targets. Expectations suggest a modest rate cut, while fiscal policy dynamics could impact future monetary policy decisions.
Professional Advice and Book Recommendations
Aspiring professionals were advised to engage with potential employers beyond algorithmic processes and maintain focus in their careers. Personal book recommendations included 'Biocentrism' by Robert Lanza and 'Noise' by Daniel Kahneman, shedding light on philosophical and behavioral insights.
Connecting with the Guest
The episode concluded with insights on the guest's availability via LinkedIn for more updates and interactions. The host expressed gratitude for the informative discussion, wishing the guest success at Aviva Investors and anticipating future collaborations. Subscribers were encouraged to engage further with the podcast through ratings, comments, and newsletter sign-ups.
Vasileios is Head of Europe Economics and Strategy at Aviva Investors – a £226bn global asset management firm. Based in London, he is responsible for monitoring and analysing macroeconomic developments and markets as well as formulating major asset class views, leading research and strategy in the UK and Europe. Previously, he held senior research roles at Citigroup, Lombard Odier, UniCredit Bank, BofA, Merrill Lynch, and Fulcrum Asset Management. In this podcast, we discuss the UK election impact, UK inflation and BoE cuts, comparing UK and European mortgage rates, and much more.
