School of War Ep 231: Peter Rough on Russian Drone Incursions into NATO
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Sep 16, 2025 Peter Rough, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, discusses alarming Russian drone incursions over Poland and Romania. He explores NATO's military response and the broader implications for regional security. The conversation delves into Europe's varied political dynamics, shaped by ongoing conflicts, and highlights the rise of populism amid decreasing American influence. Rough also examines the strategic motivations behind Russia's drone tactics and the need for NATO to adapt to evolving threats in a complex geopolitical landscape.
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Crossing NATO Airspace Triggered NATO Response
- Russia launched ~19 Gerbera/Shahid-type long-range drones that veered into Polish airspace and forced NATO scrambled intercepts.
- The incident triggered an Article 4 consultation and prompted NATO to launch Operation Eastern Sentry as a deterrent response.
Cheap Drones, Expensive Defenses
- The drones are cheap foam-and-wood systems while the interceptors and missiles used against them are very costly.
- This highlights an unfavorable offense-defense cost ratio for defenders and a lesson about defense economics.
Romanian Incursion Reinforces Pattern
- A subsequent incursion occurred in northern Romania near the Danube Delta involving similar drones.
- Romania is sensitive after past incidents and intercepted a drone that spent around 50 minutes in its airspace.