At Any Rate Global Commodities: Recession concerns confirmed
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Apr 4, 2025 In this engaging discussion, fluctuations in global commodity markets take center stage, highlighting how tariff changes impact gold and crude oil prices. The conversation pivots to concerns over a potential U.S. recession, delving into its implications for agricultural markets. Key crops like corn, wheat, and sugar are examined, revealing how economic factors shape trade flows. The insights provide a clear view of the interconnectedness of global trade and the agriculture sector.
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Initial Market Conditions
- The week started with record-high gold prices and Brent crude oil nearing $75/barrel.
- Open interest value across global commodity markets was also near its peak.
Tariff Impacts
- USMCA-compliant goods are exempt from the recently announced US import tariffs.
- Other major US trade partners face historically high tariff increases, leading to retaliation, notably from China.
Recessionary Risks
- Economists have raised the risk of a 2025 US recession to 60%, impacting global and agricultural consumption.
- This caused a sharp sell-off across markets, with crude oil prices falling 6-7%.