The New Bazaar

Election freakouts and American workers

Nov 1, 2024

Kristen Soltis Anderson, a leading voice in opinion research and analytics, discusses the tight race in the upcoming presidential election. She breaks down the fluctuating polling data, emphasizing the need to understand underlying narratives rather than just numbers. The conversation also explores voter perceptions, brand stability of candidates, and how technological advancements shape political engagement. Additionally, they touch on American workers' job satisfaction and their desire for higher salaries amidst economic uncertainty.

48:10

Creator website

Episode guests

Kristen Soltis Anderson

AI Summary

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Polling averages show remarkable stability this election cycle, indicating solidified voter preferences despite varied individual poll results.

Voter perceptions of Kamala Harris are shaping the campaign narratives, highlighting a strategic focus on her character against Donald Trump's attacks.

Deep dives

Polling Stability and Emotional Reactions

Polling averages have shown remarkable stability in recent months, with few fluctuations despite individual poll results varying widely. In past elections, significant changes in polling averages indicated shifting public sentiment, but this year's averages have remained narrowly confined, suggesting that many voters have solidified their preferences. This steadiness challenges the notion that major events will sway voter opinions significantly, as established brands, like Donald Trump's, have created a known quantity that voters are less likely to reevaluate. Overall, the key takeaway is that emotional reactions to individual polls can be misleading, and it is better to consider the overall trend rather than each specific poll.

Intro

3min

The Emotional Impact of Polling in Elections

3min

Brand Perceptions in Election Strategy

8min

Polling Complexities in Election Dynamics

19min

Workforce Satisfaction and Salary Insights

6min

Voter Perceptions and Technological Impact

7min

Rebuilding Trust in Institutions Post-Election

2min

How close is the 2024 presidential election?

Here is how the New York Times framed it recently: “Never in modern presidential campaigns have so many states been so tight this close to Election Day. Polling averages show that all seven battleground states are within the margin of error, meaning the difference between a half-point up and a half-point down — essentially a rounding error — could win or lose the White House.”

A recent Times-Sienna poll has the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris deadlocked at 48 to 48. Other polls are similarly close — which does not mean they are all telling the same story. Today’s guest, Kristen Soltis Anderson, writes that although “several of them show a dead heat, beneath the surface, they diverge in how they arrive at that result”.

What stories can we glean from each poll? What theories of this election can we derive from those stories? Are the polls even right? And why, despite verbal gaffes and incendiary rallies and international conflict and general campaign turmoil, have the polling averages remained so steady in recent months?

Kristen is a founding partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm, and contributing Opinion writer to the New York Times, where she often writes about what is knowable and not knowable based on the polls. We talk about all these themes, including a theory of the election that Kristen came upon while watching football in Phoenix on a Sunday.

Finally, we discuss a detailed survey of American workers that Echelon Insights, Kristen’s firm, put into the field for the Economic Innovation Group — and its most surprising findings.

All this and more on today’s episode!

Opinion | Two Weeks to Go, but Only One Way to Stay Calm

Opinion | This Year’s October Surprise May Be That There Isn’t One

Opinion | Why the Election Is Coming Down to Defining Kamala Harris - The New York Times

Opinion | I’ve Studied the Polls. Here’s Why Harris Isn’t Running Away With It.

The American Worker Project Survey: Key Findings Deck

American workers and the 2024 election

Kristen’s website

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.