Forward Guidance Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets | Weekly Roundup
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Oct 17, 2025 
Michael Howell, a macro analyst and founder of CrossBorder Capital, dives into the intricate web of global liquidity cycles. He discusses the hidden recession and an unexpected U.S. economic rebound. Howell highlights the impact of monetary debasement on gold and Bitcoin, emphasizing that gold may signal future crypto movements. He also explores China's significant liquidity injections and the risks posed by stablecoins to financial control. Ultimately, he considers how unique today's economic landscape is, drawing parallels to 4,000 years of monetary history.
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Global Liquidity Near Cycle Peak
- Global liquidity is in a strong upwave driven by monetary debasement and likely near the cycle top.
- This liquidity trend is separate from but layered on a longer-term debasement trend that supports real-asset demand.
Liquidity Leads Growth By Over A Year
- Liquidity leads economies by about 12–15 months, making liquidity a better asset-market guide than GDP.
- A pickup in real economy growth can be negative for financial assets if liquidity shifts into Main Street.
Monitor Treasury QE And Repo Tensions
- Watch for a shift to 'Treasury QE' as issuance moves to bills and funds target the real economy.
- Monitor repo tensions and bank reserves because this transition can tighten financial-market liquidity.
