The Full Ratchet (TFR): Venture Capital and Startup Investing Demystified 496. How Model Progress Shifts the Goalposts, Why The Death of Software Is Overstated, and How to Diligence Hypergrowth Without Getting Burned (Jacob Effron)
Nov 17, 2025
Jacob Effron, Managing Director at Redpoint, dives into the dynamic world of AI and software investments. He discusses how advancements in model layers are shifting industry benchmarks. Effron argues against the notion that software is dying, highlighting robust opportunities in AI-driven sectors like healthcare and legal. He also shares insights on evaluating hypergrowth startups, emphasizing the importance of team velocity and real product-market fit. The conversation wraps up with thoughts on managing AI's impact on jobs and the future of robotics and material sciences.
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Jacob's Path To Venture Capital
- Jacob joined Redpoint after startup roles including product at Flatiron Health and meeting the Redpoint team.
- He moved to Redpoint five and a half years ago and now focuses on early growth investments.
Two Core AI Investment Themes
- Redpoint focuses on vertical AI applications and large consumer/model bets as two main areas of investment.
- Vertical apps translate model capabilities into industry-specific value while model bets target massive category transformations.
Benchmarks Shift From Universal To Domain
- Coding and math benchmarks have seen the clearest recent model gains and drive practical product improvements.
- Domain-specific evals inside application companies will matter more than universal benchmarks going forward.
