Lessons from Pandemic Unemployment Benefits: When Government Generosity Becomes Necessity
Sep 5, 2023
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Economists Peter Ganong and Joe Vavra discuss the impacts of pandemic unemployment benefits on spending and job-finding. They explore the increase in benefits, challenges in delivering them, and the stabilizing effect of temporary expansions. They also discuss the need for careful policy design and implementing automatic triggers based on labor market indicators.
Temporary expansions of unemployment benefits can stabilize the economy and stimulate demand during a crisis, benefiting lower-income workers and historically disadvantaged groups.
Designing policies with automatic triggers and efficient delivery systems can effectively provide timely support during future crises, and the cost of implementing trigger-based programs is often overestimated.
Deep dives
Effects of Expanded Unemployment Benefits on Spending during the Pandemic
During the pandemic, the US government implemented the CARES Act, which provided expanded unemployment insurance benefits. This included increasing the level of benefits and expanding eligibility. The expanded benefits resulted in higher income for unemployed individuals, with some earning more under unemployment insurance than they did from their previous jobs. Surprisingly, spending also increased among the unemployed, stabilizing their spending at pre-unemployment levels. The expansion of benefits served to help prop up the economy and prevent a significant decline in spending. Lower-income workers benefited the most from the expansion, as the higher benefits had a larger impact on their income. Additionally, the expansion also resulted in positive racial equity impacts, benefiting historically disadvantaged groups. However, there were challenges in delivering the benefits, including delays and errors in payment. The research suggests that temporary expansions of unemployment benefits during a crisis can have a stabilizing effect on the economy, with lower disincentive effects on labor markets while providing support to those in need.
Policy Implications and Lessons Learned
The research findings have important policy implications. Temporary expansions of unemployment benefits can be an effective way to stimulate demand and stabilize the economy during times of crisis, as unemployed individuals are more likely to spend the benefits they receive. The temporary aspect of these expansions is crucial to minimize disincentive effects on labor market activity. Constructing automatic triggers based on indicators such as the unemployment rate can be beneficial, as it ensures a timely response without the need for ad hoc policy discussions. The research also highlights the importance of improving the efficiency and modernizing the unemployment insurance system to handle future crises effectively. Additionally, the findings challenge the misconception that generous unemployment benefits would significantly deter individuals from returning to work, as the impact on employment and job finding was not major.
Challenges and Future Considerations
Despite the positive outcomes, challenges in effectively delivering the expanded benefits were evident. System capacity issues and outdated technology led to delays and errors in payment, highlighting the need for investment and modernization of the unemployment insurance system. The pandemic served as a natural experiment, providing valuable insights into the effectiveness of government interventions during a crisis. The research suggests that policymakers should plan for potential future crises by designing policies with automatic triggers and efficient delivery systems in place. Moreover, the cost of implementing trigger-based programs is often overestimated, leading to a misguided focus on deficit concerns. By considering the lessons learned from the pandemic, policymakers can better prepare for future crises and ensure effective and timely support for those in need.
The U.S. government swung into action when the ranks of the pandemic unemployed swelled almost beyond recognition. Three years on, economists are continuing to study the effects of the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history. The Harris School of Public Policy’s Peter Ganong and Chicago Booth’s Joseph Vavra join The Pie to discuss the impacts on spending and job-finding.
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