The Rate Guy No, the Fed is Not Hiking This Year
Jan 21, 2025
The hosts share laughs reminiscing about their sunny vacation as they dive into the current economic climate. They review the latest inflation report, noting it's manageable and mostly in areas like airfare. The significance of the Consumer Price Index is explored, highlighting its influence on Federal Reserve strategies. There's a cautionary discussion on interest rates, informed by job market data. The episode wraps with a humorous take on social media's influence, particularly on treasury volatility, while looking ahead to the next Fed meeting.
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The Fight Song Jinx
- JP Conklin's wife, Sarah, prematurely plays the Eagles fight song after touchdowns.
- This jinxes their kicker, causing missed extra points and nearly costing them the game.
Inflation Perspective
- CPI inflation increased but remains below 3%, down from 9% two years ago.
- Focus should shift to containing inflation rather than fixating on reaching 2%.
CPI and Core PCE
- While CPI is a mainstream inflation measure, the Fed prefers core PCE.
- CPI data helps refine core PCE forecasts as several CPI components directly feed into it.