Episode 133 – Scenario Planning – Disaster Proof your Projects

How do you plan for something you can't predict? Strategist Lance Mortlock demonstrates how scenariolanning can help identify risks and expose vulnerabilities. Listen in for practical steps so that projectmanagers can be better prepared by strategically incorporating scenario planning into project planning. Table of Contents 02:04 … Writing the Book: Disaster Proof03:41 … What is Scenario Planning?07:09 … Examples of Scenario Planning Implementation11:37 … Essential Questions for Scenario Planning11:45 … Step 1: Defining Scope14:38 … Step 2: Explore Environment16:32 … PESTEL18:16 … Porter’s Five Forces21:25 … Step 3: Analyze Trends, Risks, and Uncertainties22:21 … Step 4: Build Scenarios and Signposts24:45 … Storytelling27:05 … Step 5: Confirm Scenarios and Stress Test29:41 … Step 6: Monitor Signposts and Execute Strategies31:40 … Applying AI in Scenario Planning35:04 … Connect with Lance36:27 … Closing LANCE MORTLOCK:  With storytelling, we talked earlier about how project managers take their discipline to the next level.  There’s the basics of what’s expected.  But the truly great project manager leaders again are using the different tools out there like scenarios, like the power of storytelling, to create a more compelling vision of what the future could look like. WENDY GROUNDS:  Welcome to Manage This, the podcast by project managers for project managers.  I’m Wendy Grounds, and with me in the studio is Bill Yates.  I just want to thank our listeners who have reached out to us and leave comments on our website or social media.  We always like hearing from you. We appreciate your positive ratings on Apple Podcast or whichever podcast listening app you use. So today we’re talking with Lance Mortlock.  Lance is a senior strategy partner with Ernst & Young. And he’s provided management consulting services on over 150 projects, to more than 60 clients in 11 countries.  The topic of our conversation today is based on his book, “Disaster Proof:  Scenario Planning for Post-Pandemic Future”.  And Bill and I both really enjoyed reading this book.  This was very interesting, talking about how you plan for something you can’t predict. BILL YATES:  Yeah, yeah, the uncertainty.  None of us project managers like uncertainty.  Yeah, Lance has written a brilliant book.  Okay, this is not basic project management stuff.  This is taking it to another level.  Lance’s explanation of scenario planning is spot-on.  The six steps he’s going to talk through with us are so practical and I think will resonate with the listeners.  These are some practical steps that we can use as we look at those tough questions that sponsors and customers come to us where they want us to look in the crystal ball and predict the future. WENDY GROUNDS:  Lance, welcome to Manage This.  We are so grateful to you for being our guest today. LANCE MORTLOCK:  Thanks for having me.  Looking forward to it. Writing the Book: Disaster Proof WENDY GROUNDS:  We’re talking about your book, “Disaster Proof:  Scenario Planning for Post-Pandemic Future”.  And my question is, did you already have this book in the works prior to 2020?  Did you write it as the pandemic emerged, or were you already on this project? LANCE MORTLOCK:  I have been writing for quite a bit in a more serious way and professionally for about 10 years. You know, ever since I joined Ernst & Young.  And I’ve been writing over the years about resilience, business resilience, around continuous improvement, different topics around strategy and integrated planning.  And really in, I guess, two years ago I started to think, well, I’ve done all this writing.  I’ve explored all these topics.  There’s a tremendous opportunity to kind of bring these topics together in an integrated way.  So I started to think about that and work on that two years ago. And then I would say a year ago, when we got hit with COVID, it really came to light for me that future thinking in organizations is ...