Russian Roulette The War in Ukraine in 2025 with Michael Kofman
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Dec 19, 2024 
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and military expert on Russia and Ukraine, shares insights on the future of the war in Ukraine. He discusses the shifting military dynamics, including advancements in artillery and drone technology. Delving into the geopolitical landscape, Kofman emphasizes the impact of U.S. support and Europe’s challenges. The conversation also touches on negotiation dynamics and the significance of January 20th, pondering the implications of potential energy sanctions on Russia as the conflict evolves.
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Battlefield Dynamics
- Russia's main advantage in Ukraine is manpower, despite high losses.
- Ukraine has achieved parity in firepower, but Russia's increasing gains are concerning.
Escalation Disparity
- Russia escalated its war efforts after mobilization, while the West's response was slow.
- Western aid and Ukrainian mobilization haven't matched Russia's commitment.
War and Regime Stability
- Putin prioritizes regime stability, but the war has altered this.
- Continuing the war might offer more stability than stopping it now due to battlefield gains and economic dependence on military investment.