Daniel Davis Deep Dive Iran's Enriched Uranium, Unharmed? /Trita Parsi & Lt Col Daniel Davis
Oct 20, 2025
Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute and an expert on Iran and Middle East diplomacy, delves into the complexities of the JCPOA and its impact on regional stability. He argues that the agreement prevented war and that recent military strikes hindered diplomacy. Parsi discusses Iran's internal decision-making on nuclear ambitions and how Israeli actions affect regional dynamics. He raises concerns about the sustainability of Trump's Gaza peace efforts and the risks of returning to the status quo following a ceasefire.
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JCPOA Worked; Uranium May Remain
- The JCPOA prevented Iran becoming a de facto nuclear power without war and was functioning before US withdrawal.
- Intelligence suggests key enriched uranium (60%) likely survived recent strikes, leaving many unknowns.
Strikes Erode Trust In Diplomacy
- Bombing a negotiating partner undermines diplomacy and breeds elite and public cynicism.
- Iran's strike shifted domestic opinion to view diplomacy as naive and risky, complicating future talks.
Red Lines Shape Negotiation Space
- Trump initially signaled a narrow red line (no nuclear weapon) which opened space for talks.
- Shifting to an Israeli line (no enrichment at all) made negotiations collapse.