Discussion on the CHIPS Act, changes in the semiconductor landscape, challenges of U.S. export controls, and updates on the Chinese semiconductor industry. Exploring the complexities of increasing chip manufacturing in the U.S., recent industry shifts, and the strategic importance of semiconductor technology in global competition.
US aims to produce 20% of global logic chips, targeting reduced reliance on Korea and Taiwan.
China invests heavily in semiconductor subsidies for self-sufficiency, raising concerns about market impact.
Deep dives
US Strategy Towards Leading Edge Logic Chip Manufacturing
The Secretary of Commerce stated the US goal is to produce 20% of the world's leading edge logic chips by the end of the decade, marking a significant shift from the current zero production. The US aims to support leading edge logic manufacturers to achieve this target, recognizing the existing dominance of Korea and Taiwan in chip production and Intel's rapid capacity expansion. The initiative acknowledges the need to reduce reliance on a few countries while not aiming for complete self-sufficiency.
China's Subsidization of Semiconductor Industry
China is heavily subsidizing its semiconductor industry, investing $65 billion annually in semiconductor subsidies. This investment is aimed at achieving 70% to 80% self-sufficiency and reducing dependence on US technology. China's focus on dual circulation emphasizes domestic sales and reliance on Chinese providers, driving investments in lower-end foundational chips for various applications. The increase in manufacturing capacity, predominantly for legacy node chips, raises concerns about market impact and security implications.
Geopolitical Implications of Export Controls and Multilateral Approach
The enforcement of export controls by the US on China and Russia poses challenges due to the different types of chips targeted and the scale of enforcement required. The resourcing and strategy of export control agencies impact their effectiveness, with the need for a more muscular enforcement strategy highlighted. The significance of multilateral export controls is emphasized, underscoring the importance of US allies' involvement in achieving strategic outcomes.
Monetization of New AI Products and Geopolitical Considerations
The critical question in the tech sector, including the chip industry, revolves around the monetization of new AI products to sustain investor expectations. Companies need to demonstrate profitability to justify the massive investments in AI. Geopolitical concerns persist, especially regarding export controls and the need for a multilateral approach to address spare parts loopholes and engage semiconductor equipment suppliers like South Korea.
On this special episode, we are joined by Chris Miller, author of Chip War: the Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology, and Professor of International History at Tufts University. We discuss Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo's CHIPS Act announcement (1:38), how the semiconductor landscape has changed since Chip War was published (6:39), why U.S. export controls on Russia and China are leaky (12:29), and the latest news from the Chinese semiconductor industry (22:58).
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