The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: The Latest in Iran, with Richard Nephew
Jan 13, 2026
In this insightful discussion, Richard Nephew, a Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University and former Deputy Special Envoy for Iran, dissects the current unrest in Iran amidst severe regime crackdowns. He highlights the implications of the U.S. military response options, weighing limited actions against larger campaigns. Nephew also examines Iran's nuclear reconstitution risks and tactical repercussions from summer strikes, while scrutinizing the weak ties between Iran and its proxies, as well as Iran's relationships with Russia and China.
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Protests Are An Inflection Point, Not A Certainty
- Iran's protests present both a real opportunity for regime change and a high risk of harsh clampdown by a experienced security apparatus.
- Richard Nephew warns outcomes could range from liberalizing change to worse repression or a more brutal successor regime.
Expect Limited Military Options, Not Full-Scale War
- If the U.S. contemplates force, expect targeted, limited operations rather than large-scale invasions.
- Nephew suggests strikes would aim to minimize U.S. exposure while signaling support for protesters or degrading specific capabilities.
Strikes Set Back Big Program But Left Quick Pathways
- June strikes damaged Iran's large nuclear infrastructure but left enough material and skills for a faster, cruder weapons pathway.
- Nephew assesses the big program may be a year or two from recovery while a weapons capability could be rebuilt in months.