The Pie: An Economics Podcast

Tariffs, Trade, and a Misused Model

6 snips
May 27, 2025
Brent Neiman, the Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago and former Deputy Undersecretary of Treasury for International Finance, shares his insights on the Trump administration's tariff policies. He explains how his original research was misused to justify these tariffs, leading to significant economic miscalculations. The discussion delves into the implications of tariffs on U.S.-China trade dynamics, highlighting the uncertainty they create and questioning their effectiveness as tools for policy enforcement. Neiman also shares book recommendations and indulges in a lighthearted conversation about barbecue and savory pies.
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ANECDOTE

Neiman's Unexpected Tariff Citation

  • Brent Neiman was surprised to find his research cited by the Trump administration on tariff policy.
  • The actual tariffs announced were much larger and broader than he anticipated.
INSIGHT

Tariff Impact on Prices

  • Neiman's research found U.S. importers largely paid 2018-19 tariffs, with export prices barely dropping.
  • Retail prices didn't rise much due to substitution and pricing strategies during that period.
INSIGHT

Flaws in Bilateral Deficit Tariff Logic

  • The logic of eliminating bilateral trade deficits through tariffs is flawed and economically damaging.
  • Chronic one-way spending patterns are normal and not evidence of unfair trade.
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