More or Less 14 million deaths or zero deaths? The impact of the USAID cuts
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Aug 15, 2026 
Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data and Oxford researcher in global data, breaks down how USAID worked and why counting lives linked to aid is complicated. She explains the scale of US aid, how researchers estimate impacts, the limits of those projections, and why claims of zero or 14 million deaths are both oversimplified.
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Dismantling USAID And Where Funds Went
- The DOGE task force under Elon Musk dismantled USAID and scaled back or cancelled many aid programmes worldwide.
- Lizzy McNeill outlines that remaining USAID programs were moved into the State Department amid large spending cuts.
US Gave $62 Billion Yet GNI Share Was Low
- In 2023 the US gave about $62 billion in foreign aid, roughly one third of global aid, making it the largest single contributor.
- Hannah Ritchie points out the US gave a lot in absolute terms but not the highest share relative to national income.
Absolute Dollars Versus Generosity Ratios
- The US spent about 0.24% of GNI on aid in 2020, lower than many European countries like Germany (0.8%) and Norway (1.1%).
- Hannah Ritchie uses these comparisons to show absolute dollars versus proportional generosity diverge.