Computer scientist TP Huang and host Steve discuss Huawei's new phone and semiconductor chips, including the impact on Qualcomm and the US-China chip war. They also explore the use of 5G modem and RF chips, satellite capabilities of Huawei phones, and the competition between Huawei and Apple in the Chinese market. Additionally, they discuss the challenges in Chinese chip manufacturing and the consequences of US sanctions on Chinese chip manufacturers.
Huawei's launch of the Mate 60 featuring its own advanced 7nm SOC allows them to compete in the smartphone market and potentially impact American RF chip manufacturers like Qualcomm.
The Huawei Mate 60 incorporates satellite technology, a powerful SOC, and impressive AI capabilities, making it a strong competitor in the market.
Despite US sanctions, the Chinese semiconductor industry has made significant progress in catching up with Western counterparts, with SMIC having the potential to scale up production of advanced 7nm chips.
Deep dives
Advanced chip competition between U.S. and China
The podcast episode discusses the competition between the U.S. and China in the field of advanced chip technology. T.P. Wong, a Twitter user knowledgeable in Chinese technology, shares insights on Huawei's recent Mate 60 launch and its implications for chip and AI competition. Wong's expertise allows him to accurately predict future trends and developments. He highlights the importance of understanding China's semiconductor industry as a whole, including chipmaking tools, memory chips, chip design, advanced packaging, and third/fourth-generation materials. The episode also explores Huawei's impressive SOC (System on Chip) in the Mate 60, its integration of a 5G RF front end, and the impacts of China's chip capabilities on American RF chip manufacturers like Qualcomm.
Huawei's resilience and potential revenue gains
The podcast episode examines the surprising resilience of Huawei despite U.S. sanctions. Despite being cut off from American chip supplies, Huawei has managed to launch a new flagship phone, the Mate 60, featuring an advanced 7-nanometer SOC. This move allows Huawei to retain the $160 to $180 per unit it would have paid Qualcomm for their SOC, leading to potential cost savings and increased profit margins. The analysis reveals that even with high fabrication costs, Huawei can still compete in the smartphone market and profit from their own chip design capabilities. Furthermore, the episode discusses the potential displacement of American RF chip manufacturers by Chinese suppliers, which would further impact their revenues.
Breakthrough features in the Huawei Mate 60
The podcast episode highlights the standout features of the Huawei Mate 60, including its incorporation of satellite technology and its advanced chip design. The Mate 60's use of the Tiantong satellite system allows for voice coverage anywhere within its range. This feature, coupled with its powerful SOC, impressive AI technology, and fast charging capabilities, makes the phone a strong competitor in the market. The episode emphasizes that consumer preferences extend beyond chip fabrication processes, and brand loyalty, nationalist sentiment, and unique features can influence purchasing decisions. Overall, the Huawei Mate 60 represents a significant technological achievement for the company and the potential for future advancements in the Chinese smartphone industry.
The Impact of US Sanctions on Chinese Semiconductor Industry
Despite US sanctions on Chinese tech companies, the domestic semiconductor industry has been able to make significant progress in catching up with Western counterparts. SMIC, a Chinese semiconductor manufacturer, has the potential to scale up production of advanced 7 nanometer chips, closing the gap in fabrication capabilities. Huawei, in particular, has developed a 5G modem chipset that rivals Qualcomm's offerings. Additionally, Chinese companies have made strides in developing AI chips and RF technology. While cutting off China from US chip suppliers may cause short-term disruptions, the overall pace of AI development in China could remain largely unhindered if SMIC can successfully scale up production.
Unintended Consequences of US Sanctions
The US sanctions on China, intended to hamper Chinese technological advances, may not achieve the desired objectives. Instead, it has forced Chinese industries to derisk and rely more on domestic suppliers. This shift towards self-reliance threatens Western businesses and revenue streams, as Chinese companies strive to localize their entire supply chain. Furthermore, the sanctions have inadvertently benefited Chinese startups by removing some of the barriers they face when trying to break into the market. Startups in China have been able to catch up technologically and close the gap with established companies, as the domestic industry collaborates and aligns their efforts. The US sanctions may have unknowingly accelerated China's progress in various technology sectors, such as semiconductors and AI.
TP Huang is a computer scientist and analyst of global technology development. He posts often on X: https://twitter.com/tphuang.
Steve and TP discuss:
0:00 Introduction: TP Huang and semiconductor technology
5:40 Huawei’s new phone and SoC
23:19 SMIC 7nm chip production in China: Yield and economics
28:21 Impact on Qualcomm
36:08 U.S. sanctions solved the coordination problem for China
semiconductor companies
42:48 5G modem and RF chips: impact on Qualcomm, Broadcom, Apple, etc.
47:14 5G and Huawei
52:50 Satellite capabilities of Huawei phones
56:46 Huawei vs Apple and Chinese consumers
1:01:33 Chip War and AI model training
Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.
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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.
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