Fabien Hoffman and Gabriela Rosa Hernandez discuss the use of conventional missiles in the Ukraine war, exploring the impact on strategic stability and missile technology. They analyze missile interception rates, research approaches in Russia studies, and the evolution of conventional missiles in the conflict, highlighting tactical, operational, and strategic implications.
The Russia-Ukraine war serves as a testing ground for missile technologies, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of missile forces.
Qualitative differences between Russian and Western missile systems impact strategic decision-making and perceptions of arsenal effectiveness.
Deep dives
Conventional Missiles in Ukraine War
The Russia-Ukraine war showcases the extensive use of conventional, ballistic, and cruise missiles, becoming a testing ground for missile technologies. Both sides employ missiles for tactical, operational, and strategic purposes. While Russia targets Ukraine's electricity infrastructure, Ukraine strikes at Russian logistics to hamper their forces. Symbolic strikes by both sides signal readiness for combat and highlight vulnerabilities.
Differences in Missile Systems
Interceptions reveal qualitative differences between Russian and Western missile systems. Russian missiles lack pinpoint accuracy and suffer from low survivability, contrasting with Western systems' precision and effectiveness. Western cruise missiles demonstrate high accuracy and reliability, impacting how Russian decision-makers perceive the effectiveness of their own arsenal.
Conventional Counterforce Impact
The feasibility of conventional counterforce raises concerns about the vulnerability of nuclear weapon systems to non-nuclear strikes. The war in Ukraine heightens fears that conventional weapons could substitute for or augment nuclear stockpiles, influencing strategic stability considerations. Western cruise missiles accentuate concerns in Russia and China about the potency and survivability of their nuclear infrastructure.
Crisis Stability and First Strike Tensions
The war's emphasis on conventional missile capabilities amplifies first-strike instability, leading to a use-them-or-lose-them scenario. The vulnerability of long-range missile arsenals intensifies the pressure for preemptive strikes, escalating conflicts rapidly. The present focus on conventional missile technologies may shape the dynamics of future conflicts, impacting crisis stability and strategic decision-making.
The Russia‑Ukraine war marks the first large‑scale deployment and use of conventional ballistic and cruise missile technology. Because of this, the theater has become a test bed for missile technology and strategy and has revealed the strengths and weaknesses of contemporary missile forces and doctrines.
In this episode, Fabien Hoffman and Gabriela Rosa Hernandez join the show to discuss how both sides have used conventional weapons during the Ukraine War and the war's impact on strategic stability.
Biographies
Fabian Hoffmann is a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP). His research focuses on missile technology, nuclear strategy, and defense policy. His Ph.D. project examines the implications of conventional long-range strike weapons on nuclear strategy.
Gabriela Iveliz Rosa Hernandez is an Associate Research Analyst at the CNA Russia Studies Program. Her research centers on security orders, deterrence issues, and Russia’s security policy, supplemented by her significant in-country experience living in Russia, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and other countries in the region. Her commentary has been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Time Magazine, and other media.