Daniel Davis Deep Dive War w/ Iran Would NOT be Short /Alastair Crooke & Lt Col Daniel Davis
24 snips
Jan 27, 2026 
Alastair Crooke, former British diplomat and MI6 officer turned Middle East strategist, explains why a conflict with Iran would be prolonged and costly. He discusses terrain and missile defenses, naval vulnerabilities and asymmetric maritime tactics. They also cover Iran’s mobilization logic, regional spillover risks, and the political and economic limits on a rapid military strike.
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Naval Buildup Is Strategically Limited
- A US naval buildup near Iran is far less decisive than US rhetoric suggests because Iran's coastline is honeycombed with anti-ship missiles and small naval assets.
- Alastair Crooke warns 300–400 Tomahawks and carrier-based strikes cannot easily neutralize Iran's dispersed defenses or vast territory.
June Strikes Relied On Covert Sabotage
- Crooke describes the June strikes as enabled by on-the-ground sabotage that disabled radars and networks, not by straightforward standoff missile supremacy.
- He asserts such covert infiltration options are largely spent and cannot be easily repeated.
Iran's Dispersal Prevents Quick Decapitation
- Iran has dispersed missile stocks in deep tunnels and underground silos across many provinces, making decapitation or single-strike neutralization unlikely.
- Crooke says leadership decapitation won't stop continued Iranian resistance because prepared successors and dispersed forces exist.