The Mustard Seed—a bitcoin and long-term thinking podcast Deflationary Crunch, The Big Print & Buying Bitcoin Back Lower w/ Luke Gromen
5 snips
Jan 14, 2026 
In this discussion, Luke Gromen, a macro analyst and founder known for his insights on fiscal and monetary risks, delves into the frail U.S. fiscal landscape. He explores the inevitable push for deficit monetization and the consequences of a decoupling between the financial and physical worlds. Luke highlights China's strategic commodity acquisitions and warns of potential economic dislocation due to AI's impact on white-collar jobs. He also shares his thoughts on Bitcoin versus gold, revealing his recent decision to reduce Bitcoin exposure amidst market uncertainties.
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Fiscal Math Forces Monetary Choices
- U.S. fiscal math is already broken with true interest expense exceeding receipts, forcing a choice between printing or defaulting.
- Luke argues the Fed will be forced to monetize deficits to compete with China and preserve national security.
Paper Versus Physical Economy Diverges
- The dollar (paper world) and commodities (physical world) are decoupling as China swaps dollar reserves for real resources.
- This shift undermines dollar dominance because real materials, not paper, build weapons and industry.
Watch Commodities And JGBs For Hidden Risk
- Markets look complacent but risk may surface in commodity prices and specific bond markets rather than traditional risk metrics.
- Luke flags rising gold/silver and Japanese government bond stress as early warnings unlike low VIX or tight credit spreads.
