In this episode, Luke Gromen explains why U.S. fiscal math is breaking down, why the Fed is being forced toward monetization, and why real assets are quietly reasserting themselves as paper systems weaken. We discuss the growing divide between the financial world and the physical world, China’s long-term commodity strategy, AI-driven labor disruption, and what these shifts mean for bitcoin, gold, and institutional capital.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Introduction and setting the macro context
00:50 - Trump, the Fed, and why deficit monetization is unavoidable
03:20 - Why U.S. fiscal math is already broken
06:40 - The split between the paper economy and the physical world
09:10 - How China traded dollars for commodities and leverage
12:40 - Why the dollar no longer guarantees access to real resources
13:55 - Supreme Court tariffs and whether policy choices still matter
15:10 - Why markets remain complacent despite rising global risk
18:05 - Where real stress is showing up beneath the surface
21:15 - AI as a productivity shock to white-collar employment
24:00 - Lessons from China joining the WTO and job displacement
26:45 - Political consequences of economic dislocation
29:10 - Deflationary crash versus inflationary reset scenarios
32:50 - Why execution and communication determine outcomes
34:40 - Why Luke reduced his bitcoin exposure
37:05 - Bitcoin versus gold and changing macro relationships
40:40 - Institutional behavior and long-term technical signals
44:00 - What would bring Luke back into bitcoin
48:15 - How low bitcoin could fall in a deflationary shock
52:35 - Unknown risks and why position sizing matters
56:20 - Can bitcoin surpass gold’s total market value
