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Recorded: 12-11-24

On this edition of Parallax Views, J.G. reached out to a very interesting political analyst in his continued coverage of the situation in Syria with the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the ascendancy of the Islamist HTS led by Abu Muhammed al-Jolani. Graham E. Fuller specializes in long-range forecasting of geopolitics. In fact, Fuller is a former vice chair of the National Intelligence Council at CIA responsible for long-term forecasting. He also served as a CIA operations officer overseas for two decades, with much of his time being spent in the Middle East. He served as the CIA Station Chief in Kabul and is the author of such books as A World Without Islam (2010) and The Future of Political Islam (2003). He is a noted analyst on Islamist movements and continues to write extensively on issues pertaining to U.S. foreign policy, the Middle East, and geopolitics.

Graham joined me for a conversation about Assad's overthrow and what it means for various geopolitical players including the U.S. Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf states. We ended up having a more broad discussion that led into many different areas including:

- Explaining the phenomena that has come to be known as "Political Islam" sans the tabloid clickbait that has unfortunately something attended the non-academic literature on the topic

- Graham's critique of John Mearsheimer's Realist school of thought in regards to international relations. Graham believes there is great value in Mearsheimer's analysis, but makes the case that Realism as a school of thought is too often mechanistic and deterministic in how it perceives the course of geopolitical trends

- The U.S.'s endless "Search for Enemies" and the consequences that approach to foreign policy creates, in relation to, for example, the U.S.-China relationship

- The question of HTS and its leader Abu Muhammed al-Jolani; how will the govern?; HTS's administration of Idlib; how al-Jolani is, in the immediate, approaching the West and Israel

- Israel and Turkey's strikes in Syria; Turkey's geopolitical concerns over the Kurds in Syria; the far-right elements that have been unleashed in Israel, especially since the October 7th, 2023 attack and how that effects both Israel and the Middle East more broadly

- And much, much more!

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