Deterrence Reasserted? Debating Iran's Missile Capabilities and Willingness to Use Force
May 22, 2024
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Abdolrasool Divsallar and David DesRoches discuss Iran's recent missile attack on Israel, analyzing Iran's offensive and defensive capabilities, uncertainties about Iranian air defense systems, and the impact on deterrence strategy. They delve into Iran's evolving standoff attacks, Israeli retaliatory strikes, Iranian missile capabilities, and the debate on Iran's military willingness and nuclear pursuit. They also mention upcoming works on Saudi defense reform, Iranian foreign policy, and a WMD Free Zone in the Middle East.
Iran demonstrated enhanced offensive capabilities through precision attacks on neighboring countries.
Israel's limited retaliatory strike on Iran focused on conveying a message of capability and deterrence.
Deep dives
Iran's Increased Offensive Capabilities and Defensive Strategies
Iran has demonstrated enhanced offensive capabilities through missile and drone attacks on neighboring countries. Recent engagements with Pakistan and Israel revealed Iran's use of precision attacks with improved accuracy. Iran's air defense capabilities remain uncertain, with questions surrounding effectiveness and command control. The attacks highlighted Iran's resolve in launching large-scale assaults, sparking debates on its offensive and defensive capacities.
Factors Driving Iran's Standoff Attacks and Escalation with Israel
Iran's engagement in standoff attacks and exchanges with Israel were influenced by perceived threats and changes in Israeli targeting strategies. The strike on an Iranian consulate signaled a shift towards targeting political-military leadership, escalating tensions. Concerns over Iranian deterrence and Israeli targeting patterns contributed to the decision for urgent and sub-threshold retaliation by Iran.
Israeli Retaliatory Strike and Strategic Decision-Making
Israel's limited retaliatory strike on Iran focused on destroying an S-300 missile defense radar to convey a message of capability and deterrence. Restraint in Israel's response was influenced by external pressures and operational calculations. The effectiveness of Israeli missile defense systems and the impact of the strike on regional dynamics were key considerations in strategic decision-making.
Implications of the April Attacks on Iran's Conventional Deterrence and Nuclear Program
The April attacks underscored Iran's confidence in its conventional deterrence capabilities, shaping its responses to regional threats. The strategic balance between offense and defense in a sustained conflict raises questions about sustainable missile defense strategies. Iran's ongoing pursuit of conventional deterrence may influence its nuclear policy, balancing traditional and nuclear deterrence strategies.
On this week’s episode, David DesRoches and Abdolrasool (Farzam) Divsallar, a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI's Iran Program, speak to MEI Managing Editor Matthew Czekaj on Iran’s April 13 missile and drone attack on Israel and what it reveals about both countries’ attack and deterrence capabilities.
Note: This conversation was recorded on Friday, May 3, 2024.
Recently published and upcoming works mentioned in this episode: