Cruise Lines Poised to Tighten to Peers; Disney Risks
Aug 1, 2024
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In this engaging discussion, senior analysts Stephen Flynn and Aidan Cheslin from Bloomberg Intelligence join contributor James Crombie. They explore the potential for debt tightening among cruise line giants like Carnival and Royal Caribbean, along with insights on automotive companies like Rolls-Royce and Ford. The trio highlights the credit challenges facing Disney and geopolitical risks affecting credit confidence. With a keen eye on macroeconomic trends, they dissect how fragile valuations could lead to rapid market shifts.
Cruise lines like Carnival and Royal Caribbean show potential for debt tightening due to improving credit profiles and macroeconomic conditions.
Disney faces significant credit risks stemming from its media business struggles, raising concerns about its bond performance amidst tight trading conditions.
Deep dives
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Opportunities in Credit Markets
A significant focus is placed on investment-grade bond opportunities, particularly highlighting companies like Rolls Royce, which show an improving credit profile driven by rising cash flow and declining leverage. The prospect of upgrades from credit rating agencies like Moody's offers further optimism for these bonds, making them attractive for investors. Additionally, the conversation includes other names such as IBM and Blackstone private credit, which also display potential for credit tightening and favorable financial outcomes, suggesting a favorable outlook in the current credit market landscape. The ongoing expansion in private credit markets, valued at $1.7 trillion, indicates a growing investment opportunity as well.
Risks and Concerns in Market
Concerns arise around certain high-yield sectors, notably Disney, which is exhibiting tighter bond spreads despite higher leverage and potential credit-negative catalysts. The risk of further financial strain looms due to pressures in its media business, which could impact Disney's bond performance. Similarly, the discussion points to tight trading conditions among high-yield natural gas providers, with low natural gas prices posed as a potential risk for weaker financial reports. This highlights the importance of monitoring corporate health and market trends, as adverse conditions could lead to bond underperformance.
There are potential catalysts for the debt of cruise lines like Carnival and Royal Caribbean, as well as Rolls Royce and Ford, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. BI senior analysts Stephen Flynn and Aidan Cheslin join James Crombie of Bloomberg News in this edition of BI’s Credit Edge podcast to discuss the outlook for US and European credit, identifying situations where their teams’ research differs with consensus. UBS and Jaguar Land Rover have bonds trading wide to peers that could tighten, while others like Disney and Chesapeake face significant headwinds. Flynn and Cheslin also discuss the macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook and risks of a broad credit-market correction. “There seems to be a lack of confidence in the rarefied valuation levels we’re at,” said Cheslin. “That’s something that can unwind pretty quickly.”
Please note: The Credit Edge podcast is going on vacation, and won’t be published Aug. 8. The next episode will be on Aug. 15.