Domain's Bold Property Forecasts for 2026 - with Dr. Nicola Powell

At this time every year we get flooded with predictions about what's next for Australia's housing markets. Some of them are useful… a lot of them are noise.

But every so often, a report comes along that genuinely moves the needle and helps us see the bigger picture.

Domain's Forecast Report 2026 is one of those.

It paints a pretty fascinating story: record prices in every capital city, rents still on the rise, and perhaps the most powerful first-home buyer surge we've seen in decades.

And it's not just more of the same – the data suggests our markets are shifting into a whole new gear, driven by policies, sentiment changes, and the slow rebalancing of supply.

And there are some interesting twists as to how Domain sees the housing markets play out over the next 12 months.

So today I chat with Dr Nicola Powell, Domain's Chief of Research and Economics, to help us unpack what's really coming in 2026, why this cycle is so different, and what the winners and losers might be.

Takeaways

· 2026 is expected to be a year of two halves in the property market.

· First home buyers are returning, aided by government schemes.

· Investors are also increasing their market share.

· Interest rates will significantly influence property prices.

· Sydney is forecasted to lead in house price growth.

· Affordability remains a critical challenge for buyers.

· Rental markets are expected to see modest growth.

· Regional differences in property performance are notable.

· The cash rate is a key factor in market dynamics.

· Sustainable growth is preferred over rapid price increases.

Chapters

00:00 Domain's 2026 forecast signals record prices and shifting market forces.

02:01 Key drivers behind the synchronized upswing across all capitals.

03:03 Momentum builds as confidence rises and supply tightens.

05:55 Investors and first-home buyers return, intensifying competition.

07:46 The expanded guarantee scheme reshapes borrowing and demand.

09:38 Rate expectations and affordability caps guide market behaviour.

Links and Resources:

Answer this week's trivia question here - https://www.propertytrivia.com.au/

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Michael Yardney – Subscribe to my Property Update newsletter here

Dr Nicola Powell, Chief of Research and Economics at Domain.

Domain Property Forecast Report: https://propertyupdate.com.au/?p=192486&

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