The podcast explores the conflicting narratives surrounding the US electric vehicle market, highlighting the robust growth in EV sales. It discusses the challenges faced by legacy automakers and the importance of affordable price points for wider EV adoption. The episode also delves into Tesla's falling market share and the Hertz sell-off, as well as the emergence of Korean automakers Hyundai and Kia in the EV market. The potential entry of Chinese EV giant BYD into the US market is also discussed, along with the impact of limited charging availability on EV demand growth.
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Quick takeaways
The US EV market continues to grow despite mixed signals, with overall EV market share increasing and accelerating through Q3 of 2023, reaching about 1.45 million units and a projected 32% increase in 2024.
Major US automakers like Ford, GM, and Stellantis are facing challenges in the EV market, with moderate growth, complications with battery platform transitions and model delays, and a need to catch up to Tesla's dominance, while Hyundai and Kia have shown impressive growth with their battery expertise, affordable EV options, and a successful strategy of offering a range of EV models.
Deep dives
Mixed Signals in the US Electric Vehicle Market
Despite mixed signals in the news, the US electric vehicle (EV) market continues to grow. While some automakers have announced plans to scale back EV production, overall EV market share has increased and accelerated through Q3 of 2023. EV sales in the US were up almost 50% year-on-year in 2023, reaching about 1.45 million units. However, the growth expectation for 2024 is more modest, with a projected 32% increase. The affordability of EVs, especially those priced below $35,000, remains a key factor in unlocking a larger portion of the market.
Challenges for Ford, GM, and Stellantis in the EV Market
Some major US automakers, like Ford, GM, and Stellantis, are facing challenges in the EV market. Ford's EV sales growth has been moderate, and GM has had complications with their battery platform transition and model delays. The popularity of the Chevy Bolt has been a positive for GM, but plans to phase out older models have caused some disruption. Stellantis, on the other hand, has seen success with their plug-in hybrid Jeep Wrangler, but they have not released a fully electric vehicle yet. These automakers still have a way to go to catch up to Tesla's dominance in the EV market.
Success of Hyundai and Kia in the US EV Market
Hyundai and Kia have shown impressive growth in the US EV market. Their sales increased by about 60% year-on-year from 2022 to 2023. Their strategy of offering a range of EV models, from sedans to SUVs, has been successful. Hyundai and Kia's battery expertise and affordable EV options, such as the Kia Nero and Hyundai Kona, have helped them gain market share. Their upcoming models, like the Kia EV9, targeting the family segment at a lower price point, are also expected to contribute to their continued growth in the US.
The Rise of Chinese Auto OEMs and Their Potential Entry into the US Market
Chinese auto OEMs, like BYD, have experienced rapid growth in the global EV market. BYD's sales skyrocketed from 400,000 units in 2019 to 3 million units in 2023. While BYD has not entered the US market for passenger vehicles yet due to challenges like tariffs and accessing subsidies, they have shown interest. If other US automakers do not catch up, BYD could potentially seek opportunities in the US EV market. Additionally, Chinese EV brands, like Volvo and Polestar, have already established a presence in the US market. The success of Chinese automakers highlights the importance of scale-up and pricing to unlock a larger share of the US EV market.
A recentslewnegativeheadlines about U.S. EVs makes it feel like the sky is falling on the market. Yet the data show robust growth. Combined battery electric and plug-in hybrid sales in 2023 were up 50% from 2022. Meanwhile, EV market share reached 9.5% in 2023, up from 7.5% in 2022, according to BloombergNEF.
Still, there have been real signs of changing expectations. GM and Ford have downsized their EV ambitions. Hertz sold off 20,000 Teslas. And Elon Musk tried to temper expectations in last week’s disappointing Tesla earnings call.
So why all the conflicting indicators?
In this episode, Shayle talks to BloombergNEF analyst Corey Cantor. They talk about the changing outlook on the speed of EV adoption as the focus shifts from early adopters to the mass market. They talk through the persistent challenges EVs face, like slow charger rollout and lack of affordable price points. They also cover topics like:
Whether sales challenges are more of an overall market problem or a legacy automaker problem
Tesla’s dominant but falling share of the market and what was behind the Hertz sell-off
Momentum behind insurgent Korean automakers Kia and Hyundai
Whether the Chinese EV giant BYD will enter the U.S. market
Recommended Resources:
Inside EVs: Hyundai's Electric Vehicle Push Is Absolutely Working
Bloomberg: EV-Charging Firms to Struggle With Finances, Investment in 2024
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