Rational Security: The “Arose Such a Clatter” Edition
Dec 25, 2023
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Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett and Cyber Fellow Eugenia Lostri join Rational Security to discuss the disqualification of Trump's candidacy in Colorado, the impact of Houthi attacks on global commerce, and the new Argentine president. They also share object lessons and a mulled wine recipe.
Former President Donald Trump has been disqualified from the Colorado 2024 presidential ballot due to his involvement in the January 6th insurrection.
Houthi rebel attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have prompted the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian by a multinational coalition to protect global commerce.
Javier Millet, Argentina's newly-elected president, brings a unique blend of right-wing populism and libertarian economic proposals, posing potential challenges and opportunities for the country.
Deep dives
Colorado Supreme Court disqualifies Trump from ballot
The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled in a 4-3 decision to disqualify former President Donald Trump from the state's presidential ballot for the 2024 election. The ruling is based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which bars individuals who have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States from holding office. The court's majority opinion determined that Trump's actions on January 6th, 2021, constituted an insurrection, thus disqualifying him from running. While the ruling pertains specifically to the Colorado primary, it is expected to have broader implications, potentially setting a precedent for other states and legal challenges. The Supreme Court is likely to be involved in the final resolution of this matter.
Houthi attacks disrupt shipping through the Red Sea
The Houthi rebels in Yemen have escalated their attacks on commercial shipping transiting through the Red Sea. These attacks, targeting vessels from numerous countries, have led to concerns about the security of the shipping route and potential disruptions to global commerce. Major companies, such as BP, have already announced pauses in transit through the Suez Canal due to these attacks. In response, a multinational coalition, including the US, UK, and other countries, has established Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial shipping in the region. The situation presents complex challenges as it involves a mix of state and non-state actors, as well as the need to balance security and economic interests within the region.
The participation of regional states in the multinational coalition, Operation Prosperity Guardian, to protect shipping in the Red Sea has been limited. While several international partners are involved, only Bahrain has been explicitly named among the countries in the region. This may indicate political sensitivity among regional states regarding involvement in the coalition. However, it does not necessarily reflect a lack of interest in addressing the security challenges posed by the Houthi attacks. It is possible that the regional states prefer to see the situation primarily addressed by other coalition partners with stronger military capabilities, while concurrently dealing with the political implications of participating in the operation.
Argentina's new president, Javier Millet
Javier Millet, the newly-elected president of Argentina, has recently taken office. Millet, a self-described anarcho-capitalist, has gained attention for his unconventional appearance and ownership of cloned dogs. However, it is important to look beyond these superficial elements and understand his political ideology and policies. While he has been compared to former U.S. President Donald Trump due to his right-wing views and media presence, it is crucial to analyze Millet on his own terms. His presidency raises questions about the future direction of Argentina, and his policies will be closely watched both domestically and internationally.
Comparison between Millet and Trump
There are similarities between Millet and Trump, such as their showmanship and far-right ideologies. Millet has even shared fan art of himself with Trump and Bolsonaro. However, there are clear differences as well. Millet is a libertarian focused on economic proposals like reducing government spending and advocating for a smaller role of government, while Trump's focus is more diverse. Millet tailors his speech to address the unique economic challenges in Argentina, unlike other far-right leaders who prioritize issues like immigration. While Millet can be considered a far-right populist, he is not a cookie-cutter version of other leaders in the movement.
Millet's Economic Proposals
Millet's proposed economic measures include dramatic cuts in government spending, devaluing the peso, and potentially repagging the Argentinian currency to the US dollar. These proposals aim to address the high inflation rate and poverty levels in Argentina. While the specific policies and compromises are still uncertain, Millet's appeal lies in being an outsider with radical solutions, acknowledging that things may get worse before they improve. His economic background adds to the credibility of his proposals, appealing to those who prioritize the economy. However, some concerns have been raised about the potential negative effects of shock adjustment policies, as seen in other countries.
This week on Rational Security, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett and Cyber Fellow Eugenia Lostri to talk through the big national security news waking us up from our long winter’s nap this week, including:
“Rocky Mountain, Bye.” Colorado’s Supreme Court has bid goodbye to former President Donald Trump’s 2024 candidacy (for now, at least), holding in a 4-3 ruling that he is disqualified as a candidate by virtue of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Will this ruling hold? And where will it go from here?
“Houthis to Sea, so Rudely, a Wop Bop a Loo Bop a Wop Bam Boom.” Attacks by Yemen-based (and Iran-backed) Houthi rebels have led major shippers to avoid the Red Sea, dealing a serious blow to global commerce. But the United States and a coalition of allies has announced a new maritime effort—the (perhaps too) aptly named Operation Prosperity Guardian—to keep trade flowing. What will this military operation look like? And what will it mean for the global economy?
“Not So Bueno(s) Aires?” Argentina has a new president in the form of eccentric populist economist and literal dogfather Javier Milei. What does his election mean for the future of the country? We have a live dispatch from Buenos Aires to talk it over.
For object lessons, Quinta recommended Jennifer Egan’s 2022 classic “A Visit From the Goon Squad”and her latest “The Candy House.” Scott shared his preferred recipe for mulled wine and the secret ingredient: star anise. Natalie shared a wealth of new materials celebrating civil rights leader Bayard Rustin, including a new film Rustin, as well as a recent profile in The New Yorker. And Eugenia gave the people what they want with her endorsement of the Dragon Age series of games.
