Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on Democracies and Dictatorships
Feb 12, 2007
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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Professor of Politics at NYU and Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, discusses the incentives facing dictators and democratic leaders. He applies his insights to foreign aid, the Middle East, Venezuela, China's potential for evolution to a democratic system, and Cuba. He emphasizes the importance of freedom of assembly and freedom of the press for true democracy.
Democracies prioritize effective public policies while dictators focus on rewarding cronies.
Dictators pursue nuclear weapons for political leverage and regional dominance.
True democracy requires freedom of assembly, a free press, and neutral vote counting.
Deep dives
Democracy versus Dictatorships
Democracies and dictatorships have different policy differences and face different incentives. Democracies need a larger winning coalition and aim to produce effective public policies to stay in power. In contrast, dictators have a smaller winning coalition and can afford to be more adventurous in war. Democracies are less likely to go to war and are risk-averse, while dictators are more willing to fight wars to grab resources and expand their control. Democracies also pursue economic policies that benefit the general public, while dictators focus on rewarding their cronies.
The Role of Nuclear Weapons and Saber-Rattling
Dictators like Iran's Ahmadinejad and Venezuela's Chavez pursue nuclear weapons programs because they give them more political leverage and help them sustain power. The risk of a direct attack is low, and the nuclear program serves other purposes, such as increasing national pride and maintaining dominance in the region. Dictators can take higher risks in pursuing war as long as they can still deliver benefits to their cronies. However, democracies are more cautious in choosing wars and increase their efforts if the war is not going well.
The Illusion of Democracy in Some Countries
Many countries are labeled as democracies based on elections and multiple candidates, but other crucial aspects are often overlooked. Freedom of assembly, a free press, and neutral vote counting are essential for a democracy to function properly. In some countries, these aspects are lacking, limiting the true democratic nature. Market economies and democracy should not be confused; dictators can use market reforms to sustain power without embracing democracy fully.
The State of China's Democracy
China's economic growth over the years does not necessarily signify a move towards democracy. While market reforms have taken place, political freedom has not kept pace. The Chinese Communist Party remains in control, restricting access to information, media, and free assembly. The average Chinese citizen may not have significantly more access to information compared to decades ago. The future of China's political landscape is uncertain, as mounting pressures and challenges may pose a threat to the Communist Party's hold on power.
Opportunities for Democratization
There is a moment of opportunity for transitioning to democracy in many countries, but it requires the right approach. Countries can link aid and assistance to the establishment of free assembly and a free press during the initial transition period. It increases the chances of survival for those transitioning to democracy and reduces the likelihood of war. Putting these pillars in place early on helps solidify the democratic foundations and sets the stage for long-term prosperity.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of NYU and Stanford University's Hoover Institution talks about the incentives facing dictators and democratic leaders. Both have to face competition from rivals. Both try to please their constituents and cronies to stay in power. He applies his insights to foreign aid, the Middle East, Venezuela, the potential for China's evolution to a more democratic system, and Cuba. Along the way, he explains why true democracy is more than just elections--it depends crucially on freedom of assembly and freedom of the press.
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