NAB Morning Call Dribs and drabs
Nov 2, 2025
Taylor Nugent, NAB Markets researcher and expert in macro data analysis, dives into the latest trends in housing, inflation, and tech earnings. He highlights Amazon's impressive AWS growth, which is shaping market performance. They discuss regional factors like Australia’s housing credit gains and household spending indicators influencing RBA policy. Taylor also covers OPEC+'s production adjustments, the impact of Euro area inflation on ECB decisions, and the nuances of China’s PMIs amid a struggling property sector.
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Big Tech Drives Market Gains
- Big tech — especially AWS — is still the primary driver of recent equity gains and investor sentiment.
- Taylor Nugent notes Amazon's AWS grew 20% year‑on‑year and helped lift major indices late in the week.
Australian Housing Momentum Returns
- Australian housing and credit indicators show renewed strength with house prices and NAB's index rising.
- Taylor Nugent highlights October home prices rose 1.1% month‑on‑month, the fastest since June 2023.
Prepare For RBA Caution
- Expect the RBA to hold at its November meeting given upside surprises in housing and services inflation.
- Taylor Nugent advises that near‑term inflation forecasts will need to be revised materially higher, so caution is warranted.