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HousingWire Daily

Logan Mohtashami on inflation, mortgage rates and losing construction workers

Nov 14, 2024
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, dives into the pressing issues of inflation and mortgage rates affecting the housing market. He highlights the potential fallout from a mass deportation of construction workers, addressing labor shortages amid rising demand. The conversation unveils the latest trends in housing demand post-COVID and critiques the inefficiencies within the mortgage industry. With a mix of insight and humor, Mohtashami explores how these economic indicators shape the future of residential construction.
27:25

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The interplay between mortgage rates and housing demand is crucial, with lower rates expected to potentially drive increased buyer interest in early 2025.
  • Labor market health, particularly the potential loss of construction workers, poses significant challenges to the housing sector's ability to meet rising demand.

Deep dives

Understanding Housing Demand Trends

The recent shifts in mortgage rates and consumer behavior are significantly impacting housing demand. Historically, there has been a pattern of increased demand for home sales in the latter months of the year, as seen in 2020 following the pandemic, which led to a surge in delayed purchases. In the current post-COVID landscape, coupled with fluctuating interest rates, the forward-looking data indicates potential for another seasonal run in housing demand starting in early 2025. However, whether this trend materializes will depend heavily on mortgage rates reaching or falling below critical levels, notably around 6%, suggesting that lower rates could once again stimulate buyer interest.

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