Statecraft How to Be a Good Intelligence Analyst
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Aug 7, 2025 Dr. Rob Johnston, an intelligence community veteran and author of "Analytic Culture in the US Intelligence Community," dives deep into the art and science of intelligence analysis. He explores the reasons behind the frequent mispredictions in intelligence and the challenges of finding analysts with the right linguistic skills. Johnston emphasizes the need for cognitive diversity and improved communication between analysts and policymakers. Additionally, he critiques the CIA's reliance on technology over human intelligence and advocates for systemic changes to enhance analytical capabilities.
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Communication Timing Challenges
- Intelligence failures often arise from poor communication between analysts and policymakers. - Policymakers' timing needs (immediate vs long-term) seldom align with the intelligence provided.
Challenges in Learning From Predictions
- Regular retrospective review of intelligence predictions is vital but institutional learning is difficult. - Lessons Learned program formalizes after-action reviews but actual sustained learning remains elusive.
Use AI to Capture Expertise
- Use AI to create digital assistants that shadow analysts in real time. - These digital twins can capture implicit expertise and help transfer knowledge better.
