CNA Talks: A National Security Podcast Russia's Evolving Threat Perceptions
10 snips
Oct 22, 2025 Gabriela Iveliz Rosa-Hernandez, an Associate Research Analyst with deep expertise in Russian security policy, joins the discussion. She shares insights on how the war in Ukraine has amplified rather than altered Russia's threat perceptions. Gabriela highlights Russian fears regarding U.S. non-nuclear strikes and missile defenses, as well as the concerns surrounding NATO expansion. She also touches on the transformative impact of drone attacks and Western assistance to Ukraine, elucidating the implications for U.S. military strategies.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Title Inspired By Chekhov's Twist
- Gabriela titled the report 'The Shooting Party' after a Chekhov novel where the narrator is the murderer, illustrating how narrators shape who looks like the villain.
- She used this literary device to argue that threat narratives depend on perspective.
Perception Is The Heart Of Deterrence
- Perception drives deterrence: messages fail if the adversary misreads intent or capability.
- Understanding Russian narratives matters because each side sees itself as defensive, not the aggressor.
Core Threat Perceptions Persist
- Russian threat perceptions have largely continued pre-2022 patterns while expanding rather than changing fundamentally.
- Moscow amplifies existing worries like missile defense and prompt global strike rather than adopting wholly new threats.
