#127 Grant Williams: Get Rid Of Certainty — Be Prepared For A Recession And A Soft Landing 

Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 127 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro. 

The conversation explores the importance of investors being ready for both a recession and a soft landing at the same time in the current economic environment, which is not an easy thing for investors to do. Grant makes a case that the biggest sea change is it’s now time to play defense in the market.

The discussion delves into the importance of having a view on the US dollar and the impact of Japan's monetary policy on financial markets. Grant shares his experience starting his career in Japan and discusses the worldviews of different generations and their impact on investing. He points out that Millennials are likely to learn some hard lessons about investing since they came of age in an environment where it was easy to make money. 

Elsewhere, the concept of the Fourth Turning and the potential for conflict is explored.  Grant shares his thesis on gold as a means of preserving purchasing power and problems with the CPI.

 Grant also shares the worst experience in his career.

Links:

https://www.grant-williams.com/

https://twitter.com/ttmygh

Timestamps: 

0:00 Welcome Grant Williams

1:30 Macro view

3:00 Two opposing ideas at once 

5:24 Difficult to admit you’re wrong 

8:15 Need to understand the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen

9:15 U.S. Dollar outlook 

10:29 Bank of Japan moves 

13:40 Second-order effects of Japan on the global markets/economies 

17:00 Japan’s market an alternative to the U.S.

18:23 Grant’s early career years in Japan 

21:00 1987 crash 

23:50 People want to help 

26:15 World views we form generationally 

29:00 Millennials are going to learn hard lessons about investing 

32:12 View of the economy between younger and older generations 

34:46 The Fourth Turning 

39:33 ‘The Economic Consequences of The Peace’ January 2015 talk 

42:12 Worry about my kids, my grandkids. We’ve reached that point.

43:25 The big sea change is it’s now time to play defense 

44:11 Gold 

51:02 CPI 

57:43 Worst thing that happened in Grant’s career