HousingWire Daily With lower spreads and help from Trump, mortgage rates can go even lower
14 snips
Nov 4, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst specializing in mortgage markets, joins to discuss the current state of mortgage spreads and housing demand. He highlights how improved spreads have positively impacted mortgage rates. Logan also delves into the Trump administration's strategy to influence the Fed and its effects on housing yields. Additionally, he offers insights into how recent economic signals could further lower rates, increasing home sales. The conversation wraps up with a debunking of panic surrounding the banking system.
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Spreads Drove Recent Mortgage Rate Moves
- Mortgage spreads drove 2022–2024 mortgage rate extremes and their improvement enabled rates to fall toward 6%.
- Without the 2024 spread improvement we would be well above current mortgage rates, possibly 7%+.
Political Pressure Targets Fed On Housing
- Treasury and White House voices are publicly pushing the Fed to ease because high rates have created a housing recession.
- Political pressure plus better spreads could push yields and mortgage rates lower without big Fed easing.
Use Policy Signals To Lower Yields
- Use forward guidance and personnel changes to shape rate expectations and the yield curve.
- That strategy can lower the 10-year and support sub-6% mortgage rates without drastic Fed funds cuts.