Evan Koenig, a former senior aide at the Dallas Fed, dives deep into nominal GDP targeting and its potential to reshape monetary policy. He reveals why the Fed hasn't seriously considered this approach and how it could provide greater clarity to the public. Koenig discusses the practical applications of NGDP targeting and its compatibility with the Fed’s goals of employment and price stability. The conversation also touches on the implications of this strategy following COVID-19 and its role in fostering economic stability in turbulent times.
Nominal GDP targeting emphasizes the importance of stable nominal income paths to help individuals meet fixed financial obligations.
The Fed's prior framework reviews overlooked nominal GDP targeting, illustrating a need for broader evaluations of monetary policy strategies and their economic implications.
Deep dives
Understanding Nominal GDP Targeting
Nominal GDP targeting involves setting a predetermined target for a measure of nominal spending, such as nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or gross nominal income. This approach can utilize various spending or income aggregates and potentially weighs price and output differently depending on the context. The speaker describes his personal journey into this concept, emphasizing that fixed nominal obligations dictate the importance of stable nominal income rather than just focusing on price stability. He formalized his understanding of this issue through research, arguing that predictable nominal income paths benefit individuals by ensuring they can meet their fixed obligations.
The Need for Broader Consideration in Policy Frameworks
In previous Federal Reserve framework reviews, nominal GDP targeting received minimal attention compared to other strategies, primarily due to narrow considerations of economic shocks and modeling frameworks. The past reviews concentrated on specific negative demand shocks and relied heavily on representative agent models. This limited perspective ignored other nominal frictions, such as wage stickiness and fixed debt obligations, which can significantly influence economic outcomes. The speaker argues for a broader evaluation of monetary policy strategies that includes nominal GDP targeting to better understand its implications on financial stability.
The Benefits of Nominal GDP Targeting
Nominal GDP targeting offers various advantages, including simplicity, enhanced financial stability, and improved clarity in policy communications. By focusing on stabilizing overall incomes instead of prices, it provides a more straightforward framework that is easier for the public to understand. The speaker also notes that it can mitigate the impact of financial crisis by allowing for counter-cyclical inflation, enabling debtors to manage obligations more effectively during economic downturns. Furthermore, when implemented correctly, it provides forward guidance for future growth, potentially preventing the Federal Reserve from hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Practical Applications and Real-Time Monitoring
Monitoring nominal GDP and its growth trends can offer critical insights into economic conditions and the appropriateness of monetary policy. The speaker discusses experiences from the COVID-19 pandemic, where monitoring nominal GDP growth helped assess whether the Fed's policies were adequately addressing economic needs. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the difference between nominal GDP and its potential growth rate to anticipate inflation trends. By applying these measures, economists can gauge whether monetary policy is too accommodative or restrictive, ultimately guiding better fiscal and monetary strategies.
Evan Koenig is a former senior aide to the president of the Dallas Fed. Evan returns to the show to discuss, the ins and outs of nominal GDP targeting, the practical applications of NGDP targeting, the reasons the Fed should consider it for the framework review, and much more.
Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links.