The potential adoption of Bitcoin by Middle Eastern countries and endorsement by Islamic leaders could significantly contribute to its price appreciation.
The anticipated approval of a Bitcoin ETF is priced into the market, but a delay or denial could lead to a temporary price decline.
Bitcoin offers a better money alternative that preserves purchasing power, has the potential to enhance various sectors, and is seen as a catalyst for positive change.
Deep dives
Bullish Outlook for Bitcoin: Middle East Adoption and Global Acceptance
The potential adoption of Bitcoin by Middle Eastern countries is seen as a major bullish factor. The Middle East, with its sovereign wealth funds and vast resources, could inject billions of dollars into Bitcoin, contributing to its price appreciation. Moreover, the endorsement of Bitcoin by Islamic leaders could onboard over a billion followers into the cryptocurrency network. In addition, the slow walk into a recession and low growth environment in 2024 is aligning with positive factors for Bitcoin, including the upcoming halving, the Fed's halt in rate hikes, and increased awareness of unsustainable government deficit spending. These factors, along with ongoing technical innovations in Bitcoin infrastructure, contribute to a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency.
ETF Approval Impact and Potential Delay
While the approval of a Bitcoin ETF is highly anticipated and priced into the market, a potential delay or denial in January could initially result in a negative shock, leading to a temporary price decline. However, market participants generally believe that ETF approval is inevitable in the future, which could quickly restore confidence and support a price recovery. Even without immediate ETF approval, positive catalysts such as the upcoming halving, reduced selling pressure from collapsed platforms, and increasing adoption by individuals and entities could continue to drive Bitcoin's price upward in the long run.
Positive Factors for Bitcoin's Price Appreciation
Multiple positive factors further contribute to the bullish outlook for Bitcoin. These factors include the ongoing adoption of Bitcoin by Middle Eastern countries, potential acceptance and endorsement of Bitcoin by the global Islamic community, the slow walk into a recession and low growth environment in 2024, alongside technical innovations in Bitcoin infrastructure, such as improved ease of use and advanced protocols. Additionally, Bitcoin's track record as the best performing macro asset in recent years and the growing awareness of unsustainable government deficit spending further support its potential for long-term price appreciation.
Bitcoin as a Better Money and the Age of Legends
Bitcoin is seen as a better money for a better world, preserving and appreciating purchasing power over time while fiat currencies erode it. This offers a more stable and less stressful lifestyle, allowing individuals to focus on the long term and think about future generations. The potential of Bitcoin goes beyond just improving commerce and trade, as it has the power to enhance various sectors like education, healthcare, and energy. Bitcoin is seen as a catalyst for positive change, and the future is envisioned to be a beautiful new world with a Bitcoin standard. The current bear market is viewed as a temporary phase in the ongoing battle for Bitcoin's acceptance and adoption.
Nation State Adoption and Positive Implications
The case study of El Salvador's Bitcoin adoption has generated positive results, including improved economic growth, debt reduction, and positive bond performance. This success has caught the attention of other Central and South American countries, as well as nations in the Middle East. While cautious optimism is maintained, it is expected that more nation states will consider Bitcoin adoption in the future. The potential impact extends beyond the economic sphere, with VC investor money potentially flowing into Bitcoin-focused projects and improving the overall Bitcoin experience. Bitcoin's qualities, such as its honest unit of account and halal nature in Islamic finance, make it an attractive alternative to traditional financial systems.
On this episode of Swan Signal Live, Sam sits down with John Haar and Dr. Jeff Ross to discuss all things macro. They touch on whether or not this could be the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle, delve deep into the current state of the housing market, explore inflation vs deflationary pressures, and discuss gold and Bitcoin’s value proposition.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 “Swan Signal Live” Intro 00:01:02 Introducing Dr.Jeff and John Haar 00:01:51 Dichotomy between Bitcoin Price and Bitcoin Interest 00:05:57 What would you say to Elizabeth Warren and Jamie Dimon wanting to “Close Crypto” 00:11:14 "HODL Rate" & When will the “Long Term Holders” Sell? 00:16:02 What is causing the latest Economic Rally 00:29:02 “Bank-Term Funding Program” 00:36:58 Nation-State Adoption in Bitcoin 00:43:37 What Happens if the Bitcoin ETF Doesn’t Get Approved 00:54:20 What Keeps Dr.Jeff and John “Bullish on Bitcoin?” 01:03:31 How to Connect with Dr.Jeff and John Haar 01:04:22 “Swan Signal Live” Outro
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