Episode 5: Does Australia need to scale up and join up to survive?
Apr 2, 2025
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Join Gareth Evans, a former Cabinet Minister and foreign policy legend, alongside Shiro Armstrong, an expert in international trade, Alan Dupont, a security strategist, and diplomat John McCarthy. They tackle Australia's foreign policy amidst a shifting global landscape, emphasizing self-reliance and trade diversification. The discussion highlights the importance of reassessing alliances, navigating geopolitical tensions with the U.S. and China, and enhancing Australia's defense capabilities while fostering regional engagements. These insights offer a roadmap for Australia’s strategic future.
Australia must enhance its foreign policy through self-reliance and regional diplomacy amidst shifting global power dynamics.
Economic security for Australia is critically tied to a resilient multilateral trading system amid increasing global protectionism.
Strengthening relationships with Asia-Pacific nations is essential for regional stability and reducing dependence on traditional great power alliances.
Deep dives
Re-examining National Security Policies
The current international landscape urges Australia to reconsider its foreign and defense policies, particularly in light of a potential second Trump administration. Such a reality forces allies, especially in Europe and Canada, to reflect on their strategies, yet Australia seems complacent about its security assurances from great powers. The lack of consideration regarding a future without American protection poses significant risks, underscoring the need for serious dialogue regarding national strategy. Highlighting this, a sovereignty and security forum has brought together experts to discuss crucial topics including the AUKUS submarine project and regional diplomacy, suggesting that comprehensive public discourse is essential for the nation's security.
Adapting to a 'Might is Right' World
In a world increasingly dominated by power rather than principles, Australia must pursue a foreign policy that emphasizes self-reliance and regional diplomacy. During the forum, experts discussed how Australia's national interests could be advanced by fostering greater collaboration and reducing dependence on the US unmatched military power. This involves not only enhancing economic ties with regional partners but also reinforcing Australia's military capability to ensure regional stability. The discussion stressed the necessity of understanding Australia's geopolitical position, embracing a strategy that balances cooperation and defense against potential threats.
The Importance of Multilateral Trade
The multilateral trading system is positioned as a pillar of Australia's national security, essential for mitigating vulnerabilities in an increasingly protectionist global environment. As the US shifts toward a more isolationist approach, experts emphasize the significance of maintaining open global markets to secure Australia’s economic stability. For instance, during the forum, past trade sanctions from China highlighted the effectiveness of global trade relations in providing alternative markets. The dialogue suggested that Australia’s economic security relies on the resilience of international trade networks, which must be prioritized in policy discussions moving forward.
Strengthening Regional Relationships
Experts at the forum highlighted the necessity for Australia to cultivate deeper relationships within the Asia-Pacific region, including enhanced cooperation with countries like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. These partnerships are seen as crucial for collectively addressing challenges posed by both the US's retrenchment and China's assertive presence. The participants argued that through political and military strengthening in the region, Australia can contribute to stability while also encouraging cooperation among neighbors. This active engagement is viewed as a strategic retreat from relying solely on great powers, shifting the focus toward localized diplomacy and collaboration.
Navigating a New Global Order
The conversation around Australia's role in a changing global landscape brought attention to the potential shift in alliances and the dynamics of power. As experts expressed concerns over the decline of global institutions and norms, the need for innovative approaches to multilateralism gained traction. The forum suggested that Australia should leverage its middle power status to build coalitions among democracies while remaining open to engaging non-democratic nations where necessary. Adapting to these complexities will require Australia to actively participate in reforming international systems rather than simply adhering to existing structures, standing firm in support of a rules-based order.
Recorded at Malcolm Turnbull’s Sovereignty and Security forum held in Canberra.
This panel examines how Australia pursues its national interest in a “might is right” world, and if we should work with other countries to mitigate the economic damage from Trump’s tariff war.
Panellists include: Professor the Hon Gareth Evans AC KC FASSA FAIIA, Cabinet Minister throughout the Hawke-Keating governments, and Australian National University Chancellor 2010-19; Professor Shiro Armstrong, professor of economics at ANU, Director of the Australia-Japan Research Centre, Editor of the East Asia Forum, and Director of the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research; Dr Alan Dupont AO, graduate of the Royal Military College Duntroon and the US Foreign Service Institute, and has worked extensively at the interface of security, politics, business and technology; John McCarthy AO FAIIA,former Ambassador to Vietnam, Mexico, Thailand, the United States of America, Indonesia, Japan and High Commissioner to India, is currently a Vice Chancellor’s Fellow at Melbourne University.
