Macro Mondays Macro Sunday #45 - Is the next move a rate hike? Guest: Danny Dayan
Apr 14, 2024
Expert in US inflation and monetary policy, Danny Dayan, discusses the potential for a rate hike in 2025 and the US inflation picture. Topics include US CPI data, commodity rally, China preparing, and portfolio news.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Fed Misjudgment and Sticky Inflation
- The Federal Reserve misjudged the economy, leading to stronger-than-expected growth and accelerating inflation.
- Financial conditions haven't tightened despite the Fed's messaging, and inflation remains sticky around 3.5%.
Market Questions Fed Credibility
- The market is questioning the Fed's credibility due to their misplaced dovish stance and indefensible analytical framework.
- This credibility issue is reflected in rising gold prices, as investors seek real assets amid inflation concerns.
Fed's June Meeting Crucial for Messaging
- The Fed should adopt a neutral stance in June, signaling that rate cuts are off the table and hikes are possible.
- This could help tighten financial conditions and regain control of market expectations.