UBS On-Air: Market Moves Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 47)
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Oct 8, 2025 Burkhard Varnholt, a seasoned UBS investment strategist and author of the Viewpoints letter, joins to explore the third anniversary of the current bull market. He discusses its longevity and predicts its future trajectory while comparing today's market with the dynamic 1990s. Varnholt introduces the 'Roaring 20s' investment thesis, emphasizing disruptive innovation driven by urgent global needs. He argues that unlike the dot-com bubble, current gains are supported by earnings, not just valuations, reducing risks of a market crash.
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Bull Market Anatomy And Age
- Bull markets commonly unfold in four chapters: rise from the darkest hour, climb on worry, mature with earnings, then end.
- This bull is only three years old and still young by historical 6.6-year average duration.
Historical Returns And A 1990s Parallel
- Historical bull markets average 6.6 years with 19% annualized returns, while bear markets are sharper and shorter.
- The 1990s bull—starting post-1987 crash—resembled today's due to secular productivity gains and a changing world order.
Roaring 20s: Innovation As Deflationary Force
- The "Roaring 20" thesis rests on broad disruptive innovation plus urgency-driven investments.
- Innovation both fuels growth and lowers prices, acting as a defense against inflation and pushing "lower for longer" yields.