Why Should We Care About China's Gray-Zone Warfare?

RAND’s senior behavioral scientist Todd Helmus joins Jim Carouso and Ray Powell to explain how China exploits the maritime “gray zone” to pursue its aggressive and expansionist policies without triggering open conflict.

They examine how China’s competitors have seen their sovereignty eroded and their influence wane by remaining passive in the face of gray-zone aggression. They discuss the crucial role of assertive transparency and affirmative engagement in illuminating these activities in order to counter them, while also building resiliency and international support against them.

Turning their attention to the South China Sea, they discuss how China has turned its coast guard into a large and highly capable paramilitary force, and has paired it with its maritime militia to pressure the Philippines into surrendering its own maritime rights. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ southeast Asian neighbors’ responses have ranged from muted to outwardly critical of Manila due to their fear of economic retaliation from Beijing.

They conclude by talking about how the U.S. and its allies need to develop comprehensive strategies to counter China’s gray-zone campaign before it achieves its expansionist objectives.

Read RAND’s work on gray-zone responses:

• Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations
• How the United States Can Support Allied and Partner Efforts to Counter China in the Gray Zone

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