Stock market outlook for year end, vulnerable corners of the market, safety and growth opportunities, impact of high interest rates on equities, shifts in asset allocation, outlook for industrials, financials, and technology sectors, bearish outlook on stock market and preference for tech sector
The outlook for stocks is downbeat due to factors such as high interest rates and slowing economies, and stocks will struggle until there is a recession and rate cuts.
Investors are reacting strongly to earnings reports, causing share prices to drop if expectations are not met, indicating a challenging earnings environment for equities.
Deep dives
Challenges for Equities in the Current Market Environment
The podcast discusses the challenges facing equities in the current market environment. It highlights the impact of rising energy prices, a stronger dollar, and tighter financial conditions on the performance of equities. The podcast also explores the implications of the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East on the market. The guest speaker, Maria Vaymane, emphasizes that the outlook for stocks is downbeat, citing factors such as the cost of money, high interest rates, and slowing economies. She suggests that until there is a recession and rate cuts, stocks will struggle.
Earnings Season and the Contractions in Corporate Earnings
The podcast delves into the ongoing earnings season and the current state of corporate earnings. Maria Vaymane highlights that companies have been reporting mixed results, with many experiencing earnings contractions. She points out that earnings expectations for the next year are high, but the reports thus far have fallen short of these expectations. Investors are reacting strongly to earnings reports, causing share prices to drop if expectations are not met. The podcast also mentions the downgrades in earnings projections for various sectors, indicating a challenging earnings environment. The longer earnings continue to decline, the more problematic it becomes for equities.
Positioning and Asset Allocation Shifts
The podcast explores the shifts in asset allocation and positioning among institutional investors. It notes a recent trend of investors moving away from stocks and reallocating towards cash and fixed income. The guest speaker highlights that this shift reflects a reevaluation of the previous soft landing scenario and a more cautious stance towards equities. Defensive sectors, such as healthcare and staples, are gaining interest from investors, while sectors like industrials and financials are considered more vulnerable. The podcast also touches on the implications of a weaker yen and the performance of the Japanese market.
It has been a year of two halves for equity markets. The belief that central bank easing would come to the rescue bolstered returns in the first half, but a higher-for-longer message from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, thanks in large part to a resilient US economy, is starting to take its toll. Marija Veitmane, our global head of Equity Strategy, makes a long overdue appearance discussing which corners of the stock market look most vulnerable and where to look for safety and growth opportunities.