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The Wharton Moneyball Post Game Podcast

Moneyball Highlights: Football Power Index

Sep 20, 2023
Brian Burke, ESPN Sports Data Scientist, discusses the Football Power Index (FPI) and creating confusion against offensive lines. The podcast also delves into personnel's impact on team strategies, calculating uncertainty in football analytics, analyzing priors and game probabilities in sports models, and the importance of cognitive abilities for quarterbacks.
26:22

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Simulated pressure in football defenses can create confusion and lead to one-on-one matchups and wasted blockers, increasing the chances of generating sacks and reducing yards per attempt for the opposing offense.
  • ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) incorporates offensive, defensive, and special teams ratings based on net EPA per play, along with a quarterback component, and even though last year's version performed below expectations, they are currently reevaluating and refining the model.

Deep dives

Discussion on the effectiveness of simulated pressure in football

In this podcast episode, Brian Burke, a sports studio scientist at ESPN, discusses the concept of simulated pressure in football defenses. Simulated pressure involves lining up like a blitz with multiple defenders on the line of scrimmage, but only rushing four, dropping the others into coverage. This creates confusion for the offensive line and can lead to one-on-one matchups and wasted blockers. Burke explains that more exotic pressure schemes, like simulated pressure, can be highly effective in generating sacks and reducing yards per attempt for the opposing offense.

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