Chatter: Nuclear Launch Authority in Myth and Reality, with Hans Kristensen
Jan 18, 2024
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Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project, discusses the chain of command for nuclear strike authorization, alternatives to the current system, fictional scenarios of nuclear launches, and the 'letters of last resort' for UK nuclear submarines. They also touch on deterrence and human psychology in relation to nuclear weapons.
A credible and resilient system is crucial for deterrence purposes when it comes to nuclear launch authority and decision-making.
The involvement of the Secretary of Defense in the launch authorization process helps ensure consultation and guards against potential overreactions in limited use scenarios.
Understanding the launch authorization processes of different nuclear-armed countries is challenging but vital, as decision-making varies and evolves over time.
Deep dives
Overview of Nuclear Launch Authority
The podcast episode delves into the topic of nuclear launch authority and the decision-making process behind the use of nuclear weapons. It highlights the importance of having a system that is both credible and resilient for deterrence purposes. It emphasizes that while the ultimate decision lies with the President in countries like the US and Russia, there are other individuals and checks in place to ensure sound judgment. It also explores the potential impact of artificial intelligence on decision processes and the debate surrounding removing the human from the loop. The episode acknowledges the uncertainties and complexities involved in understanding the specific launch authorization processes of different countries.
The Role of the Secretary of Defense in Launch Authorization
The episode discusses the role of the Secretary of Defense in the launch authorization process, particularly in the context of limited use scenarios. It argues that involving the Secretary of Defense in the decision-making ensures a consultation process and guards against potential overreactions. The episode cites examples of high-ranking military officials expressing confidence in the command and control system's ability to transmit launch orders if needed. It highlights the need for robust redundancy and structures within the system to maintain credibility and stability in deterrence.
Different Launch Authorization Processes in Various Countries
The podcast provides a broad overview of the launch authorization processes in different nuclear-armed countries. It mentions that the ultimate decision in countries like the UK rests with the Prime Minister, while in Russia it may involve consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the Central Military Commission. The episode also mentions the presence of advisory committees and collaborative decision-making in countries like China, India, and Pakistan. It acknowledges the challenges in obtaining comprehensive information about these systems and notes that the specifics of these processes can vary and evolve over time.
Letters of Last Resort and Nuclear Command and Control System
The episode briefly touches upon the concept of 'Letters of Last Resort' in the UK, where incoming Prime Ministers write handwritten instructions to nuclear submarine commanders in catastrophic scenarios. Although the exact contents of these letters are uncertain, their purpose is to outline the expected actions of the commanders. The episode also emphasizes the strength and redundancy of the nuclear command and control system, highlighting its role as the 'fourth leg' of the nuclear triad. It notes the ongoing efforts to ensure reliable communication, consultation, and verification processes within the system.
Manned Mission to Mars
As a closing question, the episode briefly discusses the possibility of the United States sending a manned mission to Mars. While recognizing the appeal and adventurous nature of such a mission, the guest expresses personal reservations about leaving Earth permanently due to a deep appreciation for nature. The conversation touches on the resource allocation and practicality concerns associated with such an endeavor, suggesting a focus on nearer space exploration as a starting point.
Lloyd Austin's hospitalization and delayed communication about it have spurred much commentary and questions about the role of the secretary of defense in the US nuclear-strike chain of command.
David Priess spoke with Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, about his path to expertise on nuclear issues, the chain of command for nuclear strike authorization (and recent comments from elected representatives that misunderstand it), alternatives to the current system, fictional scenarios of nuclear launches, what is known about different nuclear states' authorization processes, the "letters of last resort" for UK nuclear submarines, deterrence and human psychology, and more.
Chatter is a production of Lawfare and Goat Rodeo. This episode was produced and edited by Cara Shillenn of Goat Rodeo. Podcast theme by David Priess, featuring music created using Groovepad.
